NBA games

POR @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
122–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR29342237122
NO37182034109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home NO
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 34 7 11
Shaedon Sharpe S 31 23 5 1
Caleb Love 28 22 2 2
Toumani Camara S 34 14 6 4
Donovan Clingan S 30 11 15 1
Kris Murray S 26 6 4 3
Sidy Cissoko 20 5 0 3
Robert Williams III 18 4 6 1
Rayan Rupert 14 3 1 1
Yang Hansen 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 31 35 8 2
Jeremiah Fears S 29 18 5 4
Jordan Poole S 30 16 1 6
Karlo Matkovic 20 16 2 0
Bryce McGowens S 24 13 4 0
Yves Missi S 21 5 3 2
Kevon Looney 24 4 12 2
Micah Peavy 24 2 3 2
Jordan Hawkins 17 0 1 0
Jose Alvarado 21 0 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremiah Fears · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jeremiah Fears makes 3-foot running dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Jerami Grant POR
12%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
4 Deni Avdija POR
12%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
10%
6 Jeremiah Fears NO
10%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
8 Bryce McGowens NO
8%
9 Sidy Cissoko POR
8%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
11%
Layup
58%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.6 7.1 9.5
2 Zion Williamson NO 25.0 6.9 3.5
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.9 4.4 3.8
4 Jerami Grant POR 22.5 4.6 3.6
5 Jrue Holiday POR 20.6 5.0 8.6
6 Jordan Poole NO 17.6 3.0 3.9
7 Toumani Camara POR 13.8 4.6 3.2
8 Donovan Clingan POR 13.0 10.6 2.0
9 Jeremiah Fears NO 13.0 4.1 3.6
10 Caleb Love POR 11.3 2.6 2.6
11 Sidy Cissoko POR 9.1 2.9 2.2
12 Bryce McGowens NO 8.5 2.4 1.6
13 Kris Murray POR 8.4 4.7 1.6
14 Jose Alvarado NO 7.6 2.3 3.7
15 Robert Williams III POR 7.4 9.0 1.3
16 Blake Wesley POR 6.7 2.7 3.1
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.4 1.4 0.9
18 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.3 1.8 0.8
19 Yves Missi NO 4.5 4.6 0.7
20 Rayan Rupert POR 4.4 2.0 1.0
21 Micah Peavy NO 3.9 1.6 0.8
22 Kevon Looney NO 3.8 4.5 1.6
23 Duop Reath POR 3.8 1.7 0.8
24 Yang Hansen POR 3.8 2.5 1.0
25 Karlo Matkovic NO 3.3 3.2 0.7
26 Trey Alexander NO 3.2 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.