NBA games

CHA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
121–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA38223130121
MIL24273635122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 34 26 4 3
Miles Bridges S 37 25 6 2
Brandon Miller S 30 19 7 4
Collin Sexton 27 16 0 6
Tidjane Salaun 22 12 4 1
LaMelo Ball S 26 12 2 7
Sion James 27 7 6 3
PJ Hall S 19 4 8 1
Liam McNeeley 5 0 2 0
Josh Green 13 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 30 30 10 5
Ryan Rollins S 37 29 4 8
Bobby Portis 22 20 6 1
Kyle Kuzma 32 18 6 1
AJ Green S 41 12 0 3
Kevin Porter Jr. S 36 10 4 10
Jericho Sims 2 2 0 0
Myles Turner S 22 1 4 2
Gary Trent Jr. 17 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes running layup (Brandon Miller assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
10%
5 Collin Sexton CHA
10%
6 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
7 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
9 AJ Green MIL
8%
10 Myles Turner MIL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
22%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 25.4 8.7 6.2
2 Brandon Miller CHA 22.8 5.2 4.1
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 22.7 4.3 5.2
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.5 4.4 8.7
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 20.8 5.9 8.9
6 Miles Bridges CHA 19.0 6.3 4.9
7 Bobby Portis MIL 17.2 7.6 2.1
8 Ryan Rollins MIL 16.8 4.5 5.6
9 Collin Sexton CHA 16.2 3.0 3.9
10 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.5 6.3 2.5
11 Myles Turner MIL 12.3 4.5 1.6
12 AJ Green MIL 9.1 2.5 2.1
13 Sion James CHA 7.9 3.4 1.8
14 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 7.6 1.9 1.4
15 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.9 4.3 1.3
16 Josh Green CHA 5.6 1.9 1.1
17 Jericho Sims MIL 5.6 4.4 1.0
18 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.0 2.3 0.9
19 Tre Mann CHA 4.2 1.7 1.2
20 PJ Hall CHA 4.2 3.0 0.6
21 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.8 1.2 0.5
22 Cole Anthony MIL 2.7 1.1 1.2
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.4 0.8 0.9
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 1.0 0.3
25 Amir Coffey MIL 1.6 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.