NBA games

ORL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
114–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL32273619114
CHI22373230121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHI
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 31 6 6
Anthony Black S 33 18 2 7
Desmond Bane S 38 14 4 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 13 10 1
Jalen Suggs S 20 11 3 4
Jamal Cain 15 8 3 0
Jase Richardson 8 7 0 0
Tristan da Silva 25 7 3 1
Goga Bitadze 16 5 4 3
Tyus Jones 18 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 30 21 9 7
Kevin Huerter 24 20 4 2
Nikola Vucevic S 35 17 10 5
Ayo Dosunmu 21 17 3 7
Patrick Williams 23 15 2 1
Jalen Smith S 27 11 10 1
Isaac Okoro S 30 9 3 1
Tre Jones S 29 6 0 5
Julian Phillips 10 5 2 0
Dalen Terry 12 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 14-foot jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
5 Anthony Black ORL
10%
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Tre Jones CHI
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
10 Jalen Smith CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
28%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.9 9.5 6.2
2 Anthony Black ORL 22.8 4.9 5.2
3 Desmond Bane ORL 22.7 5.2 5.2
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 19.8 4.0 5.3
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.6 7.7 3.5
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.5 7.2 2.2
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.1 4.4 1.6
8 Tre Jones CHI 11.7 3.0 5.7
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.3 3.0 3.5
10 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.5 3.0 1.5
11 Kevin Huerter CHI 9.5 3.8 1.9
12 Zach Collins CHI 8.2 5.1 1.3
13 Jalen Smith CHI 7.3 6.4 1.5
14 Jase Richardson ORL 6.9 2.1 1.6
15 Tyus Jones ORL 6.7 2.3 3.3
16 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.7 3.8 1.4
17 Patrick Williams CHI 5.9 2.5 1.2
18 Jevon Carter CHI 5.6 1.5 1.1
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 5.1 1.1
20 Noah Penda ORL 4.6 3.5 1.2
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.4 2.6 1.5
22 Jamal Cain ORL 4.3 1.4 0.8
23 Julian Phillips CHI 4.1 1.8 0.6
24 Jett Howard ORL 3.4 1.3 0.8
25 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.0 2.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.