NBA games

ATL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
111–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL33273417111
NY3017232999

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NY
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 30 23 9 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 23 4 3
Jalen Johnson S 38 18 10 11
Luke Kennard 21 12 3 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 12 5 1
Dyson Daniels S 38 11 6 8
Vit Krejci 29 8 4 1
Kristaps Porzingis 17 4 8 2
Asa Newell 11 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 24 2 5
OG Anunoby S 35 19 10 1
Mikal Bridges S 35 18 5 5
Miles McBride S 31 11 1 2
Guerschon Yabusele 15 8 4 1
Ariel Hukporti S 28 8 16 4
Tyler Kolek 17 6 3 1
Jordan Clarkson 14 5 0 0
Trey Jemison III 5 0 1 0
Pacome Dadiet 2 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles McBride · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
11%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 Mohamed Diawara NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
37%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 31.2 4.0 7.9
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 27.5 10.4 9.8
3 Trae Young ATL 21.8 2.4 8.8
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 21.4 11.2 2.8
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.9 3.6 3.4
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 19.6 8.6 4.0
7 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 19.2 5.3 2.8
8 OG Anunoby NY 17.7 6.4 2.9
9 Mikal Bridges NY 17.2 4.6 5.1
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.8 7.6 5.9
11 Miles McBride NY 14.2 3.2 2.6
12 Jordan Clarkson NY 11.2 2.3 1.7
13 Vit Krejci ATL 10.5 2.5 1.5
14 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.9 3.5 1.6
15 Tyler Kolek NY 9.8 3.9 5.5
16 Asa Newell ATL 6.8 3.0 1.0
17 Luke Kennard ATL 6.6 2.4 2.0
18 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 5.2 2.4 1.6
19 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.8 1.7 0.9
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.5 2.1 0.8
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.8 1.3 1.6
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.7 3.6 0.8
23 Trey Jemison III NY 3.5 3.3 0.8
24 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.3 2.5 0.6
25 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.8 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.