NBA games

DEN @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
108–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN24353811108
CLE28342625113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home CLE
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 39 34 6 7
Peyton Watson S 40 21 4 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 15 2 2
Spencer Jones S 36 13 6 1
Zeke Nnaji 24 13 5 0
Jalen Pickett S 18 9 2 3
DaRon Holmes II S 24 3 4 6
Julian Strawther 6 0 0 0
Bruce Brown 24 0 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 33 6 5
Darius Garland S 32 18 2 8
De'Andre Hunter 26 16 5 4
Craig Porter Jr. 23 10 5 5
Jarrett Allen S 30 8 12 3
Evan Mobley S 32 8 11 4
Jaylon Tyson S 24 8 5 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 19 6 6 0
Lonzo Ball 15 6 3 2
Tyrese Proctor 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Spencer Jones · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Spencer Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (DaRon Holmes II assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
16%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
5 Darius Garland CLE
12%
6 Spencer Jones DEN
11%
7 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
8 Jalen Pickett DEN
9%
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE
0%
10 DaRon Holmes II DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
26%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.2 4.5 6.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.8 4.7 7.6
3 Darius Garland CLE 21.9 3.0 7.9
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.3 9.5 3.8
5 Jaylon Tyson CLE 15.4 5.9 2.4
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.6 3.6 1.6
7 Peyton Watson DEN 13.5 4.3 1.6
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.5 7.9 2.6
9 Sam Merrill CLE 11.8 3.0 2.6
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.7 3.7 1.6
11 Bruce Brown DEN 11.3 5.9 3.1
12 Spencer Jones DEN 10.0 4.2 1.8
13 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.4 3.6 0.9
14 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.6 2.5 2.1
15 Lonzo Ball CLE 5.5 3.2 3.1
16 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.4 2.8 0.9
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.3 3.8 2.4
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.1 1.6 1.4
19 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.0 1.7 0.7
20 Julian Strawther DEN 3.2 1.0 0.6
21 Curtis Jones DEN 2.8 0.9 0.7
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.1 1.1 0.4
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.8 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.