NBA games

BKN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
99–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2426232699
WSH37273223119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home WSH
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terance Mann S 24 14 3 2
Ziaire Williams 24 14 1 1
Drake Powell 22 14 1 1
Day'Ron Sharpe S 30 14 9 3
Nolan Traore 26 12 1 5
Danny Wolf S 35 11 6 3
Egor Demin S 28 10 8 3
Noah Clowney S 28 8 2 1
Jalen Wilson 16 2 0 0
Tyrese Martin 5 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Justin Champagnie 25 20 7 0
Alex Sarr S 29 19 5 4
CJ McCollum S 31 17 6 3
Tre Johnson S 28 12 5 1
Marvin Bagley III 17 12 8 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 29 11 8 4
Khris Middleton S 23 9 4 2
Will Riley 19 9 3 4
Bub Carrington 26 7 5 4
AJ Johnson 14 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Day'Ron Sharpe · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Day'Ron Sharpe makes driving layup (Noah Clowney assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum WSH
12%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
3 Noah Clowney BKN
11%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
5 Khris Middleton WSH
9%
6 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
7 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
8 Drake Powell BKN
8%
9 Danny Wolf BKN
7%
10 Egor Demin BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
38%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 22.4 2.6 3.4
2 CJ McCollum WSH 18.7 4.2 4.2
3 Bub Carrington WSH 16.3 4.6 4.7
4 Alex Sarr WSH 16.1 8.1 2.1
5 Noah Clowney BKN 15.0 4.8 2.3
6 Egor Demin BKN 12.9 2.8 3.5
7 Marvin Bagley III WSH 12.4 6.5 2.4
8 Tre Johnson WSH 12.1 3.0 2.2
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.3 5.4 2.2
10 Khris Middleton WSH 10.4 3.9 4.3
11 Danny Wolf BKN 9.5 4.0 2.4
12 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.2 7.8 1.2
13 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.3 2.8 1.4
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.3 6.1 3.3
15 Terance Mann BKN 7.4 3.6 3.5
16 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.3 2.7 1.6
17 Drake Powell BKN 6.0 2.0 1.7
18 Will Riley WSH 5.8 2.2 1.5
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.0 1.7 0.8
20 Nolan Traore BKN 4.8 1.6 1.7
21 E.J. Liddell BKN 2.9 1.6 0.5
22 Malaki Branham WSH 2.7 1.5 0.7
23 Sharife Cooper WSH 2.7 0.9 0.6
24 AJ Johnson WSH 2.5 1.1 0.7
25 Anthony Gill WSH 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.