NBA games

SA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
123–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA30412230123
IND31272728113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home IND
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 32 24 7 4
Dylan Harper 29 22 2 1
Stephon Castle S 33 19 8 8
Keldon Johnson 26 16 6 1
Kelly Olynyk 20 10 5 3
Luke Kornet S 27 9 5 3
Julian Champagnie S 25 9 8 1
Lindy Waters III 14 7 3 1
Harrison Barnes S 21 5 3 0
Carter Bryant 11 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 36 23 9 5
Andrew Nembhard S 36 19 6 6
Micah Potter S 28 16 6 1
T.J. McConnell 18 14 2 3
Jarace Walker 11 11 0 0
Aaron Nesmith S 29 9 3 3
Ben Sheppard 17 8 3 1
Johnny Furphy 14 7 2 1
Jay Huff 20 2 2 2
Bennedict Mathurin S 20 2 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
18%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
13%
3 Stephon Castle SA
13%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
12%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
7 Jay Huff IND
8%
8 Johnny Furphy IND
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
27%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 21.7 5.7 3.5
2 Stephon Castle SA 20.8 4.3 7.1
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.4 4.1 5.8
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 17.9 3.4 6.5
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.2 5.4 2.3
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.9 4.7 2.0
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.3 5.8 1.1
8 Dylan Harper SA 10.0 3.8 3.4
9 Luke Kornet SA 9.7 8.0 1.4
10 Harrison Barnes SA 9.5 3.2 1.9
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.8 2.7 4.7
12 Jay Huff IND 8.4 4.6 1.5
13 Julian Champagnie SA 8.3 5.4 1.4
14 Ben Sheppard IND 7.9 3.1 2.1
15 Jarace Walker IND 7.2 3.5 1.4
16 Quenton Jackson IND 6.5 2.0 2.1
17 Ethan Thompson IND 6.0 2.6 1.8
18 Johnny Furphy IND 5.8 2.9 0.8
19 Micah Potter IND 4.7 2.4 1.1
20 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.9 1.8 1.0
21 Jeremy Sochan SA 3.3 2.4 0.6
22 Tony Bradley IND 3.3 2.5 0.6
23 Carter Bryant SA 3.3 2.0 0.7
24 Kam Jones IND 3.1 1.0 0.6
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.8 1.0 0.7
26 Lindy Waters III SA 2.5 1.0 0.4
27 Taelon Peter IND 2.3 0.9 0.6
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.