NBA games

UTAH @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
101–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH17333120101
LAC31222936118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home LAC
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Anderson 32 22 8 1
Brice Sensabaugh S 32 20 3 3
Cody Williams 26 18 0 0
Isaiah Collier S 37 16 6 10
Walter Clayton Jr. 30 9 2 3
Svi Mykhailiuk S 24 5 2 1
Taylor Hendricks S 17 5 2 0
Kyle Filipowski S 28 4 6 1
Oscar Tshiebwe 15 2 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 39 45 7 3
James Harden S 29 20 3 7
Nicolas Batum 28 14 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 24 10 6 1
Kobe Sanders 24 10 4 3
John Collins S 20 8 11 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 27 6 10 1
Brook Lopez S 20 3 2 1
Kris Dunn S 24 2 2 2
Jordan Miller 1 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
James Harden · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
24%
2 James Harden LAC
12%
3 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
12%
4 John Collins LAC
10%
5 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
6 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
7%
7 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
8 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
7%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
10 Brook Lopez LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
53%
Jumper
10%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 31.9 7.8 5.0
2 James Harden LAC 25.8 3.9 7.4
3 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 14.5 9.7 4.5
4 John Collins LAC 14.3 5.1 2.1
5 Kris Dunn LAC 11.0 3.9 3.8
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 10.9 6.1 1.5
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.3 3.7 1.6
8 Ace Bailey UTAH 9.9 3.1 1.1
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 9.6 2.7 6.8
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 9.5 2.9 1.8
11 Brook Lopez LAC 8.6 4.1 1.6
12 Nicolas Batum LAC 7.1 3.1 1.5
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.0 2.2 1.3
14 Kevin Love UTAH 7.0 5.3 1.1
15 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.6 2.7 0.9
16 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 6.5 1.7 2.2
17 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.5 3.0 1.7
18 Kobe Brown LAC 5.2 2.7 1.2
19 Jordan Miller LAC 4.7 2.9 1.2
20 Kyle Anderson UTAH 4.3 1.9 2.3
21 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.1 3.4 0.7
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.7 2.6 0.8
23 Cody Williams UTAH 3.6 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.