NBA games

BOS @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
120–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28342632120
SAC29322718106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home SAC
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 29 10 4
Derrick White S 35 16 5 7
Payton Pritchard S 31 16 3 6
Sam Hauser 29 15 5 1
Anfernee Simons 30 14 2 4
Neemias Queta S 23 13 5 0
Luka Garza 25 11 3 2
Hugo Gonzalez 19 3 6 1
Baylor Scheierman 9 3 0 0
Jordan Walsh S 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 35 25 5 6
Dennis Schroder 28 18 3 7
Keon Ellis 27 16 1 1
Precious Achiuwa S 22 14 3 2
Maxime Raynaud S 35 12 8 1
Russell Westbrook S 27 10 3 6
Keegan Murray S 38 7 6 4
Drew Eubanks 7 4 1 0
Malik Monk 6 0 0 1
Nique Clifford 16 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Precious Achiuwa · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Precious Achiuwa makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
6 Derrick White BOS
9%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
7%
10 Jordan Walsh BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
26%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.7 6.4 6.3
2 Derrick White BOS 22.8 5.1 5.2
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.1 4.6 4.2
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 19.8 6.2 7.0
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.3 4.4 6.0
6 Maxime Raynaud SAC 15.7 9.1 1.8
7 Dennis Schroder SAC 14.4 3.2 5.6
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.8 5.8 1.6
9 Anfernee Simons BOS 11.0 2.8 1.7
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.5 7.2 1.7
11 Nique Clifford SAC 9.7 3.6 1.5
12 Jordan Walsh BOS 8.9 4.7 1.3
13 Malik Monk SAC 8.5 2.3 2.4
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.4 3.5 1.0
15 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.6 4.6 1.4
16 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.5 4.8 1.2
17 Luka Garza BOS 6.2 3.8 1.2
18 Keon Ellis SAC 5.5 2.1 1.1
19 Josh Minott BOS 4.1 2.0 0.7
20 Chris Boucher BOS 4.0 3.2 0.7
21 Devin Carter SAC 4.0 1.7 1.2
22 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.8 2.7 0.6
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.8 1.2 0.6
24 Dario Saric SAC 3.1 1.1 0.4
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.7 1.3 0.8
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.4 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.