NBA games

PHI @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
123–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI27412431123
DAL33242625108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DAL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 42 34 8 10
VJ Edgecombe S 40 23 5 2
Joel Embiid S 35 22 4 6
Quentin Grimes 38 19 7 2
Paul George S 33 14 7 2
Dominick Barlow S 18 5 1 0
Andre Drummond 7 2 4 0
Adem Bona 7 2 4 0
Jared McCain 14 2 3 0
Jabari Walker 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Christie S 29 18 1 2
Brandon Williams 24 14 7 5
Anthony Davis S 37 13 8 2
Cooper Flagg S 37 12 7 7
P.J. Washington S 34 11 5 1
Naji Marshall 22 9 1 1
Klay Thompson 13 9 2 1
Ryan Nembhard S 22 9 2 3
Daniel Gafford 11 8 5 0
Jaden Hardy 7 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cooper Flagg · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Cooper Flagg makes 5-foot two point shot (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
15%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
5 Cooper Flagg DAL
8%
6 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI
7%
8 Daniel Gafford DAL
7%
9 Paul George PHI
7%
10 Ryan Nembhard DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
23%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 28.1 4.3 6.8
2 Joel Embiid PHI 25.5 7.8 3.6
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 25.3 6.6 5.9
4 Anthony Davis DAL 22.2 12.0 3.2
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 19.1 4.8 3.9
6 Paul George PHI 18.5 5.3 4.0
7 Naji Marshall DAL 17.0 4.4 2.9
8 P.J. Washington DAL 16.4 7.9 1.9
9 Brandon Williams DAL 13.6 3.4 3.9
10 Max Christie DAL 11.7 3.8 2.2
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 11.3 3.7 4.1
12 Klay Thompson DAL 10.3 3.0 1.4
13 Dominick Barlow PHI 10.3 5.9 1.7
14 Ryan Nembhard DAL 8.7 2.5 5.7
15 Jared McCain PHI 7.2 3.5 2.2
16 Daniel Gafford DAL 6.5 5.4 0.9
17 Andre Drummond PHI 5.9 7.5 1.0
18 Adem Bona PHI 5.8 4.3 0.8
19 Dwight Powell DAL 4.9 3.9 1.1
20 Jabari Walker PHI 4.6 3.2 0.5
21 Justin Edwards PHI 4.2 2.0 1.0
22 Eric Gordon PHI 3.8 0.5 0.5
23 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.7 1.3 0.8
24 Caleb Martin DAL 3.1 2.2 1.3
25 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.8 0.6 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.