NBA games

MIA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
118–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA33303124118
DET26282731112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home DET
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 35 36 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 30 19 3 5
Andrew Wiggins S 32 17 8 1
Bam Adebayo S 33 15 14 0
Dru Smith 15 9 0 1
Davion Mitchell S 33 8 1 11
Nikola Jovic 24 5 5 5
Simone Fontecchio 6 5 3 0
Kel'el Ware S 27 4 13 0
Kasparas Jakucionis 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 40 31 8 11
Marcus Sasser 24 18 4 2
Ausar Thompson S 30 12 2 2
Jalen Duren S 18 12 5 0
Javonte Green 26 11 2 1
Paul Reed 12 9 7 1
Duncan Robinson S 20 9 2 2
Isaiah Stewart S 30 6 4 2
Jaden Ivey 21 2 1 3
Ronald Holland II 18 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
15%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
3 Jalen Duren DET
13%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Duncan Robinson DET
9%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
32%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.1 6.0 11.0
2 Norman Powell MIA 21.7 4.5 3.7
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 20.7 4.5 4.4
4 Jalen Duren DET 16.7 10.4 2.0
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.4 10.3 2.5
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.8 4.6 2.7
7 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.6 9.9 1.0
8 Ausar Thompson DET 12.1 6.2 2.5
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.8 5.2 1.4
10 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.1 2.4 5.9
11 Duncan Robinson DET 9.9 2.8 1.9
12 Ronald Holland II DET 9.0 4.8 1.4
13 Jaden Ivey DET 8.8 2.4 2.4
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.6 3.2 3.2
15 Javonte Green DET 7.1 2.9 1.3
16 Dru Smith MIA 6.9 2.7 2.3
17 Simone Fontecchio MIA 5.9 2.5 1.6
18 Marcus Sasser DET 5.3 1.3 2.2
19 Tolu Smith DET 5.3 5.3 1.0
20 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.3 1.5 1.8
21 Paul Reed DET 4.3 3.4 0.9
22 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.2 1.5 1.2
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.1 2.5 0.5
24 Chaz Lanier DET 4.1 1.7 1.0
25 Myron Gardner MIA 2.8 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.