NBA games

POR @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
95–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR3025211995
OKC38352625124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home OKC
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sidy Cissoko S 27 19 1 2
Deni Avdija S 32 17 7 7
Shaedon Sharpe S 28 14 4 1
Caleb Love 30 10 5 4
Kris Murray 26 10 3 1
Robert Williams III 16 8 8 0
Toumani Camara S 34 6 7 4
Donovan Clingan S 17 6 5 0
Yang Hansen 11 3 5 0
Rayan Rupert 12 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 30 2 6
Ajay Mitchell 23 17 6 3
Isaiah Joe 19 15 1 1
Jalen Williams S 26 13 7 7
Chet Holmgren S 25 12 10 1
Branden Carlson 20 12 7 1
Luguentz Dort S 25 12 2 1
Cason Wallace S 27 5 2 4
Alex Caruso 9 3 1 0
Kenrich Williams 12 3 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sidy Cissoko · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Sidy Cissoko makes 25-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
6 Deni Avdija POR
9%
7 Jrue Holiday POR
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Kris Murray POR
6%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
47%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.2 5.2 7.2
2 Deni Avdija POR 25.1 6.9 8.0
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.2 4.4 3.4
4 Jerami Grant POR 21.0 4.5 3.3
5 Jalen Williams OKC 20.2 5.1 5.8
6 Jrue Holiday POR 19.5 4.8 7.7
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.8 7.7 1.8
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.4 4.3 2.8
9 Donovan Clingan POR 12.3 10.2 1.8
10 Ajay Mitchell OKC 12.0 3.6 3.5
11 Caleb Love POR 9.3 2.1 2.1
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.9 3.5 1.4
13 Cason Wallace OKC 8.5 3.1 2.0
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.7 2.6 1.4
15 Alex Caruso OKC 7.3 4.2 1.6
16 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.2 2.9 1.9
17 Robert Williams III POR 7.2 8.1 1.1
18 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.6 2.6 1.4
19 Kris Murray POR 6.6 4.6 1.4
20 Blake Wesley POR 6.2 2.5 2.8
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.2 2.8 1.8
22 Branden Carlson OKC 5.7 2.4 0.9
23 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 1.2 0.8
24 Rayan Rupert POR 3.9 1.7 0.8
25 Yang Hansen POR 3.2 2.1 0.9
26 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.6 1.3 0.8
27 Duop Reath POR 2.4 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.