NBA games

WSH @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH30352128114
MIL32302625113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIL
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bub Carrington 24 20 5 5
Alex Sarr S 28 20 11 2
CJ McCollum S 32 18 4 4
Tre Johnson S 28 14 2 2
Justin Champagnie 33 12 9 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 25 10 5 2
Marvin Bagley III 20 9 3 4
AJ Johnson 16 8 0 2
Will Riley 12 3 2 2
Khris Middleton S 23 0 3 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 28 33 15 3
Kevin Porter Jr. S 39 19 6 5
Ryan Rollins S 39 16 7 7
Bobby Portis 20 13 5 3
Myles Turner S 31 13 7 2
AJ Green S 34 9 2 2
Kyle Kuzma 21 5 5 2
Gary Harris 11 5 0 0
Gary Trent Jr. 15 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 CJ McCollum WSH
11%
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
11%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
6 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
7 Myles Turner MIL
8%
8 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
9 Jamir Watkins WSH
8%
10 AJ Green MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
14%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 25.5 8.4 6.5
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 21.6 6.3 9.4
3 CJ McCollum WSH 20.8 4.2 4.5
4 Bobby Portis MIL 17.8 7.8 2.1
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 16.9 4.6 5.7
6 Alex Sarr WSH 15.7 7.7 2.0
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.6 6.5 2.8
8 Bub Carrington WSH 15.6 4.4 5.3
9 Myles Turner MIL 12.8 4.2 1.7
10 Tre Johnson WSH 12.1 3.0 2.2
11 Marvin Bagley III WSH 12.0 6.9 2.0
12 Khris Middleton WSH 11.0 4.3 3.9
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.9 5.1 2.5
14 AJ Green MIL 9.7 2.7 2.4
15 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.2 2.0 1.5
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.2 7.7 1.4
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 7.8 3.3 1.1
18 Will Riley WSH 6.5 2.3 1.4
19 Jericho Sims MIL 6.3 4.8 1.2
20 Gary Harris MIL 5.0 1.9 1.1
21 Jamir Watkins WSH 4.4 2.7 0.8
22 Malaki Branham WSH 3.7 2.0 0.9
23 Cole Anthony MIL 3.0 1.2 1.3
24 Sharife Cooper WSH 2.8 0.9 0.7
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 0.9 0.9
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 1.3 0.5
27 AJ Johnson WSH 2.3 1.2 0.7
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.2 1.2 0.4
29 Amir Coffey MIL 1.9 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.