NBA games

DEN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
106–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN32312221106
TOR23312524103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home TOR
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Peyton Watson S 36 24 8 0
Jamal Murray S 38 21 7 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 17 9 4
DaRon Holmes II 22 11 3 1
Jalen Pickett S 28 10 1 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 30 9 5 1
Bruce Brown 25 8 7 2
Spencer Jones S 38 6 7 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 36 30 8 1
Immanuel Quickley S 34 22 3 4
Scottie Barnes S 33 20 14 10
RJ Barrett S 24 17 6 3
Collin Murray-Boyles 26 6 9 2
Jamal Shead 21 2 0 5
Ja'Kobe Walter 23 2 3 0
Jamison Battle 6 2 1 0
Ochai Agbaji S 11 2 2 1
Gradey Dick 12 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes driving dunk (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
14%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
6 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
8%
7 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
8 Spencer Jones DEN
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
32%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 25.3 4.2 7.0
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 25.1 5.7 4.6
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.1 10.3 5.7
4 RJ Barrett TOR 19.0 4.8 4.2
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.6 4.1 6.6
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.6 3.2 1.5
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 12.3 5.8 1.9
8 Peyton Watson DEN 12.0 4.1 1.3
9 Jamal Shead TOR 10.3 2.7 5.8
10 Bruce Brown DEN 10.0 4.9 2.7
11 Spencer Jones DEN 9.7 3.7 1.6
12 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.0 3.4 1.3
13 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.8 4.3 1.2
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.7 2.1 1.3
15 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 6.7 4.8 1.9
16 Gradey Dick TOR 5.4 1.8 1.0
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.5 2.3 1.9
18 Jamison Battle TOR 3.8 1.7 0.9
19 Julian Strawther DEN 3.7 1.4 0.7
20 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.3 1.5 0.6
21 Curtis Jones DEN 3.3 1.2 0.8
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.6 1.4 0.5
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.4 1.2 0.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 0.8 0.6
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.0 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.