NBA games

NY @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
132–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY45282930132
SA36273041134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home SA
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 29 4 8
Miles McBride 26 21 3 2
Jordan Clarkson 24 20 2 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 20 7 4
Mikal Bridges S 35 13 5 3
OG Anunoby S 34 9 5 2
Mohamed Diawara S 6 6 1 1
Ariel Hukporti 14 6 6 1
Kevin McCullar Jr. 8 3 2 2
Tyler Kolek 15 3 3 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Champagnie S 36 36 6 0
Victor Wembanyama S 24 31 13 1
De'Aaron Fox S 38 26 1 7
Keldon Johnson 31 19 8 0
Harrison Barnes S 26 7 6 4
Luke Kornet 24 7 9 4
Stephon Castle S 27 5 2 7
Dylan Harper 16 2 2 0
Kelly Olynyk 11 1 1 2
Carter Bryant 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 18-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
14%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
13%
3 OG Anunoby NY
13%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
13%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
7 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
8 Mohamed Diawara NY
8%
9 Jalen Brunson NY
6%
10 Guerschon Yabusele NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
34%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.5 3.9 7.8
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.2 10.1 3.2
3 Stephon Castle SA 22.1 4.5 7.2
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.6 10.6 2.4
5 De'Aaron Fox SA 17.6 4.0 6.0
6 OG Anunoby NY 17.5 6.3 2.4
7 Mikal Bridges NY 16.6 4.4 4.5
8 Miles McBride NY 12.1 2.9 2.2
9 Keldon Johnson SA 11.5 5.6 1.1
10 Dylan Harper SA 10.9 3.9 4.1
11 Jordan Clarkson NY 10.5 2.4 1.3
12 Harrison Barnes SA 10.1 3.0 1.8
13 Luke Kornet SA 9.8 7.3 1.4
14 Tyler Kolek NY 9.3 3.7 4.5
15 Julian Champagnie SA 7.1 5.3 1.5
16 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 5.1 2.4 1.3
17 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.3 2.1 0.6
18 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.3 1.8 0.8
19 Trey Jemison III NY 3.7 3.1 0.6
20 Carter Bryant SA 3.7 2.0 0.7
21 Jeremy Sochan SA 3.6 2.5 0.8
22 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.3 1.3 0.7
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.2 1.1 1.0
24 Lindy Waters III SA 2.8 1.1 0.6
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 2.8 0.6
26 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.6 0.8 0.4
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.3 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.