NBA games

NO @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
118134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO32302828118
CHI36313037134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home CHI
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 29 31 7 3
Jordan Poole 26 26 3 2
Saddiq Bey S 34 16 4 3
Trey Murphy III S 34 15 6 5
Derik Queen S 25 9 7 4
Micah Peavy 14 6 2 1
Jordan Hawkins 14 5 1 0
Jeremiah Fears S 23 5 0 4
Yves Missi 23 3 6 0
Kevon Looney 18 2 10 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaac Okoro S 36 24 5 2
Tre Jones S 27 20 2 12
Matas Buzelis S 27 19 6 2
Nikola Vucevic S 34 17 8 5
Jalen Smith S 26 14 14 1
Kevin Huerter 29 13 6 1
Ayo Dosunmu 25 12 4 6
Patrick Williams 20 12 2 2
Jevon Carter 6 3 0 0
Dalen Terry 10 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes 1-foot layup (Jeremiah Fears assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
22%
2 Derik Queen NO
13%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
12%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
12%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
7 Jeremiah Fears NO
10%
8 Isaac Okoro CHI
9%
9 Jordan Poole NO
0%
10 Kevon Looney NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
9%
Layup
71%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.0 6.7 3.5
2 Trey Murphy III NO 21.7 4.9 3.6
3 Derik Queen NO 18.7 9.2 5.5
4 Saddiq Bey NO 17.9 5.9 2.6
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.3 7.6 3.4
6 Jordan Poole NO 16.2 2.8 3.8
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.2 4.4 1.7
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.7 3.2 3.6
9 Jeremiah Fears NO 12.6 4.3 3.5
10 Tre Jones CHI 11.9 3.0 5.0
11 Kevin Huerter CHI 10.2 3.6 2.0
12 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.2 2.9 1.4
13 Zach Collins CHI 8.9 5.3 1.6
14 Jose Alvarado NO 7.5 2.4 3.8
15 Jalen Smith CHI 6.9 5.8 1.4
16 Jevon Carter CHI 6.2 1.8 1.2
17 Patrick Williams CHI 5.5 2.8 1.2
18 Dalen Terry CHI 5.4 2.8 1.8
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.4 1.9 0.8
20 Julian Phillips CHI 5.2 2.3 0.9
21 Yves Missi NO 4.6 4.6 0.8
22 Kevon Looney NO 3.8 4.1 1.2
23 Micah Peavy NO 3.7 1.8 0.8
24 Karlo Matkovic NO 3.5 3.4 0.7
25 Trey Alexander NO 3.3 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.