NBA games

PHX @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
113–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX21333524113
CLE37302933129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home CLE
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 33 32 2 4
Dillon Brooks S 34 20 3 3
Jamaree Bouyea 15 18 3 4
Collin Gillespie S 27 17 6 5
Royce O'Neale S 27 9 2 1
Ryan Dunn 19 6 5 0
Nigel Hayes-Davis 4 5 3 0
Jordan Goodwin 22 4 15 2
Mark Williams S 24 2 9 2
Oso Ighodaro 21 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 30 34 10 7
Darius Garland S 29 19 1 6
Jaylon Tyson 31 18 2 3
Evan Mobley S 29 16 10 5
Sam Merrill 23 16 1 1
Jarrett Allen S 27 16 11 3
Dean Wade S 23 5 5 2
Thomas Bryant 4 3 0 0
Craig Porter Jr. 29 2 9 2
Tyrese Proctor 4 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Royce O'Neale · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Royce O'Neale PHX
14%
2 Dillon Brooks PHX
11%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Devin Booker PHX
10%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Darius Garland CLE
10%
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
83%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
1%
Jumper
8%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.8 4.1 6.0
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.4 4.8 6.4
3 Darius Garland CLE 21.9 3.4 7.3
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 20.9 3.7 2.3
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.6 9.9 4.0
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.2 4.6 6.1
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 14.4 6.6 2.2
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.7 7.6 2.3
9 Mark Williams PHX 12.5 7.0 1.6
10 Sam Merrill CLE 11.9 3.1 2.4
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.7 4.4 2.2
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.6 3.9 3.0
13 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 8.1 2.7 1.7
14 Dean Wade CLE 7.9 4.5 1.5
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.5 6.6 2.4
16 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.4 3.9 1.0
17 Lonzo Ball CLE 5.9 3.4 3.1
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.9 4.6 1.6
19 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.8 2.9 0.9
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.3 1.8 1.5
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.1 3.4 2.2
22 Isaiah Livers PHX 4.4 3.1 1.0
23 Rasheer Fleming PHX 4.4 2.0 0.7
24 Nick Richards PHX 3.1 3.7 0.6
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.7 1.9 0.6
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.6 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.