NBA games

ORL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
112–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL31372618112
IND28382915110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home IND
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 35 29 10 4
Desmond Bane S 33 18 7 6
Anthony Black S 31 15 4 5
Goga Bitadze 19 14 9 3
Jalen Suggs S 25 11 3 3
Jamal Cain 12 11 0 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 6 11 2
Noah Penda 9 4 0 0
Tyus Jones 24 4 1 1
Tristan da Silva 15 0 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 26 4 0
Bennedict Mathurin S 37 23 5 2
Andrew Nembhard S 31 19 4 7
Ben Sheppard 19 12 1 0
Aaron Nesmith 32 9 10 0
Jarace Walker 18 9 4 0
Micah Potter 26 8 3 3
T.J. McConnell 17 4 1 8
Tony Bradley 12 0 5 1
Johnny Furphy S 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 11-foot turnaround jump shot (Anthony Black assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
2 Anthony Black ORL
11%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
4 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
9 Jay Huff IND
6%
10 Johnny Furphy IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
31%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Black ORL 23.2 5.7 5.0
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.8 5.8 4.1
3 Desmond Bane ORL 22.7 5.3 4.9
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.2 8.8 5.8
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.2 3.4 7.7
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 19.4 3.6 4.8
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.0 5.6 2.3
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.7 4.2 2.2
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 15.2 7.2 2.3
10 Jay Huff IND 9.6 5.2 1.6
11 T.J. McConnell IND 9.5 3.1 4.8
12 Jarace Walker IND 7.6 3.4 1.5
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.4 4.0 1.2
14 Quenton Jackson IND 7.2 2.3 2.3
15 Tyus Jones ORL 7.1 2.5 3.1
16 Jase Richardson ORL 7.1 2.3 1.7
17 Ethan Thompson IND 6.7 2.8 2.0
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.3 2.6 1.9
19 Johnny Furphy IND 6.3 3.1 0.9
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 5.5 1.0
21 Noah Penda ORL 4.9 4.2 1.1
22 Micah Potter IND 4.2 2.5 1.0
23 Jamal Cain ORL 4.1 1.9 0.7
24 Jett Howard ORL 4.0 1.6 0.9
25 Tony Bradley IND 3.8 2.5 0.6
26 Kam Jones IND 3.8 1.3 0.7
27 Taelon Peter IND 3.0 1.2 0.7
28 Orlando Robinson ORL 2.9 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.