NBA games

MIN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
102–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN26232429102
ATL33372828126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home ATL
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 33 30 5 2
Julius Randle S 31 19 7 2
Johnny Juzang 8 10 3 1
Jaden McDaniels S 22 8 4 2
Leonard Miller 8 7 0 0
Rudy Gobert S 28 6 11 3
Naz Reid 22 6 7 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 26 6 2 7
Rob Dillingham 8 5 2 3
Jaylen Clark 16 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 32 34 10 6
Onyeka Okongwu S 27 17 8 5
Kristaps Porzingis 17 16 2 1
Luke Kennard 27 15 6 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 31 11 0 3
Dyson Daniels S 28 11 8 9
Zaccharie Risacher S 28 9 4 1
Asa Newell 16 7 9 1
Vit Krejci 26 6 1 5
Keaton Wallace 4 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zaccharie Risacher · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
3 Julius Randle MIN
10%
4 Trae Young ATL
10%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 Rudy Gobert MIN
8%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
49%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.2 6.2 4.0
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 27.6 10.8 9.5
3 Julius Randle MIN 23.2 6.5 6.7
4 Trae Young ATL 21.6 2.5 8.3
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.5 3.9 3.4
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 19.4 8.8 4.2
7 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.0 5.2 2.5
8 Naz Reid MIN 16.2 6.8 2.7
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 15.7 4.5 3.5
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.6 7.1 5.5
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.9 5.5 5.0
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.5 12.5 1.9
13 Vit Krejci ATL 11.3 2.8 1.4
14 Bones Hyland MIN 9.7 2.6 3.4
15 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.6 3.6 1.6
16 Asa Newell ATL 7.5 2.7 1.1
17 Luke Kennard ATL 5.9 2.1 1.6
18 Mike Conley MIN 5.8 2.3 2.3
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.7 2.3 0.8
20 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.2 2.1 1.5
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.9 1.5 1.7
22 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.6 2.6 0.6
23 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.1 1.4 0.7
24 Leonard Miller MIN 3.0 2.1 0.7
25 Joan Beringer MIN 3.0 2.3 0.6
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.1 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.