NBA games

GS @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
132–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS30392934132
CHA30343625125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home CHA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 26 2 4
Brandin Podziemski 23 19 3 3
Jimmy Butler III S 31 19 5 7
Gui Santos 17 13 5 2
Draymond Green S 28 10 8 12
Gary Payton II 10 9 1 0
Quinten Post S 14 9 1 0
Al Horford 13 8 2 0
Moses Moody S 19 7 5 2
De'Anthony Melton 23 7 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 36 33 2 2
LaMelo Ball S 30 27 5 5
Kon Knueppel S 32 20 5 8
Collin Sexton S 27 16 5 8
Sion James 26 9 1 3
PJ Hall 16 9 7 2
Tidjane Salaun 17 6 1 1
Josh Green 17 5 2 2
Liam McNeeley 11 0 1 1
Moussa Diabate S 28 0 8 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kon Knueppel · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Kon Knueppel makes 23-foot running jump shot (Moussa Diabate assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
16%
2 Kon Knueppel CHA
13%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
4 Quinten Post GS
10%
5 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
6 Draymond Green GS
9%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
8 Sion James CHA
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Stephen Curry GS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.5 5.1 5.4
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.4 4.3 7.7
3 Brandon Miller CHA 21.6 5.1 4.0
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 21.5 4.2 4.8
5 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.8 5.5 4.8
6 Collin Sexton CHA 16.3 2.8 3.5
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.3 4.0 4.2
8 Draymond Green GS 10.5 5.8 3.7
9 Quinten Post GS 9.8 4.7 1.8
10 Moses Moody GS 9.5 3.8 1.8
11 Pat Spencer GS 9.0 2.8 3.6
12 Tidjane Salaun CHA 8.2 4.6 1.2
13 De'Anthony Melton GS 7.8 2.7 1.9
14 Buddy Hield GS 7.8 3.3 1.4
15 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.5 4.5 1.8
16 Sion James CHA 7.2 3.5 1.6
17 Will Richard GS 7.2 2.9 1.3
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.8 7.8 1.5
19 Al Horford GS 6.7 4.7 2.0
20 Josh Green CHA 5.7 1.9 1.0
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.5 4.6 1.0
22 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.5 2.4 0.8
23 Tre Mann CHA 5.3 2.1 1.4
24 Gui Santos GS 4.8 2.7 1.3
25 Gary Payton II GS 4.1 2.5 1.7
26 PJ Hall CHA 4.1 2.9 0.5
27 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.0 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.