NBA games

SAC @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
90–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2020311990
LAC34392731131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAC
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nique Clifford 29 18 1 2
Russell Westbrook S 19 12 3 4
Maxime Raynaud S 35 12 12 0
Keegan Murray S 30 11 2 1
Dennis Schroder 25 11 3 4
DeMar DeRozan S 28 8 7 3
Drew Eubanks 13 6 3 0
Devin Carter 7 4 0 0
Doug McDermott 7 3 1 0
Malik Monk 11 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 33 33 5 5
James Harden S 30 21 3 5
John Collins S 22 16 5 1
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 25 16 6 2
Kris Dunn S 21 10 6 1
Brook Lopez S 23 8 6 3
Derrick Jones Jr. 20 8 1 3
Kobe Sanders 26 7 6 4
Jordan Miller 7 6 1 0
Kobe Brown 7 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Dunn · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Kris Dunn makes 4-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
14%
2 James Harden LAC
11%
3 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC
7%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
9 John Collins LAC
7%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
23%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 27.2 7.7 4.7
2 James Harden LAC 24.8 3.8 7.1
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.2 4.3 4.6
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 20.2 6.0 7.2
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC 15.5 9.1 1.8
6 Dennis Schroder SAC 13.7 3.2 5.8
7 John Collins LAC 13.4 4.8 2.0
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.0 5.9 1.4
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.7 3.4 1.4
10 Malik Monk SAC 10.7 2.7 2.9
11 Kris Dunn LAC 10.7 3.2 3.6
12 Nique Clifford SAC 8.7 3.8 1.3
13 Brook Lopez LAC 7.2 3.4 1.3
14 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.8 5.5 1.3
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.5 2.7 1.3
16 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.4 2.5 1.6
17 Jordan Miller LAC 5.5 2.8 1.3
18 Keon Ellis SAC 5.2 1.8 1.0
19 Kobe Brown LAC 4.0 1.8 0.8
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.6 1.2 0.5
21 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.0 2.1 0.4
22 Dario Saric SAC 2.9 1.1 0.3
23 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 2.9 2.2 0.6
24 Cam Christie LAC 2.5 1.7 0.4
25 Devin Carter SAC 2.4 1.0 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.