NBA games

DET @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
128–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET36342632128
LAL30352318106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home LAL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 33 27 5 11
Marcus Sasser 24 19 2 5
Isaiah Stewart 18 15 2 0
Jalen Duren S 28 14 8 2
Ronald Holland II 19 11 7 0
Jaden Ivey 17 9 2 2
Javonte Green 31 8 4 2
Ausar Thompson S 22 7 2 3
Tobias Harris S 6 7 0 0
Duncan Robinson S 28 6 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 30 5 11
LeBron James S 32 17 4 4
Jaxson Hayes 18 13 2 2
Dalton Knecht 4 10 2 0
Deandre Ayton S 26 10 2 0
Jake LaRavia S 38 9 4 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 27 8 8 1
Marcus Smart S 25 6 2 5
Nick Smith Jr. 17 3 0 1
Bronny James 4 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
14%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
4 LeBron James LAL
12%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
6 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Marcus Smart LAL
9%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
9%
10 Paul Reed DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
30%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.6 7.4 8.1
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.9 6.1 10.1
3 LeBron James LAL 24.4 5.1 6.3
4 Jalen Duren DET 17.8 10.3 1.9
5 Deandre Ayton LAL 13.1 9.6 1.3
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.0 4.3 2.7
7 Ausar Thompson DET 12.7 6.3 2.3
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.8 5.1 1.4
9 Duncan Robinson DET 10.3 3.0 1.6
10 Marcus Smart LAL 9.8 3.1 2.1
11 Ronald Holland II DET 9.1 4.7 1.3
12 Jake LaRavia LAL 9.0 4.4 1.9
13 Jaden Ivey DET 8.2 2.4 2.3
14 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 7.2 1.5 1.0
15 Javonte Green DET 6.1 2.3 0.9
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.6 4.0 1.3
17 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.6 3.5 0.5
18 Daniss Jenkins DET 4.6 1.4 1.2
19 Paul Reed DET 4.1 3.3 0.8
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.0 1.7 0.7
21 Chaz Lanier DET 3.3 1.1 0.6
22 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.2 1.7 0.8
23 Marcus Sasser DET 2.7 0.5 1.4
24 Bronny James LAL 2.6 0.9 1.0
25 Adou Thiero LAL 2.4 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.