NBA games

PHI @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
139–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHI3438312511139
MEM403228288136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MEM
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 43 34 4 12
Joel Embiid S 38 34 10 8
VJ Edgecombe S 41 25 6 4
Paul George S 39 17 3 3
Dominick Barlow S 24 12 5 0
Quentin Grimes 38 11 3 3
Adem Bona 26 4 6 2
Jared McCain 13 2 4 1
Justin Edwards 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 34 40 2 3
Cedric Coward S 37 28 16 4
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 15 12 3
Santi Aldama 36 15 6 2
Jaylen Wells S 32 14 4 2
Cam Spencer 19 7 1 5
Jock Landale 18 6 3 2
GG Jackson 23 6 1 2
Javon Small 9 5 3 3
Christian Koloko S 20 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Ja Morant makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
3 Cedric Coward MEM
10%
4 Ja Morant MEM
10%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
9 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
10 Paul George PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
14%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.2 4.3 6.2
2 Joel Embiid PHI 23.5 7.4 3.1
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.9 6.8 2.9
4 Ja Morant MEM 20.2 4.0 8.9
5 Cam Spencer MEM 18.8 3.7 7.4
6 Santi Aldama MEM 18.4 6.9 3.3
7 Paul George PHI 18.3 5.7 3.9
8 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.0 4.9 3.7
9 Cedric Coward MEM 15.8 6.7 3.7
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 14.1 4.2 2.4
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.4 4.3 3.8
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.9 5.6 1.6
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 9.9 2.5 3.9
14 Jock Landale MEM 9.8 6.6 1.6
15 Jared McCain PHI 8.1 3.5 2.2
16 Andre Drummond PHI 6.4 7.6 1.2
17 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.3 3.0 4.6
18 Adem Bona PHI 6.2 4.2 0.8
19 Jabari Walker PHI 5.4 3.5 0.6
20 GG Jackson MEM 5.3 3.0 0.8
21 Justin Edwards PHI 4.9 1.9 1.1
22 Javon Small MEM 4.8 1.0 3.0
23 Eric Gordon PHI 3.7 0.6 0.4
24 Christian Koloko MEM 3.4 3.8 1.0
25 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.7 0.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.