NBA games

DAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
122–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL29343029122
POR42332228125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home POR
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Christie S 29 25 3 5
Brandon Williams 30 22 3 4
Daniel Gafford S 26 17 10 0
Naji Marshall 29 17 7 4
Cooper Flagg S 35 15 6 8
Klay Thompson 19 14 1 1
P.J. Washington S 29 8 5 1
Dwight Powell 18 2 3 2
Caleb Martin 7 2 1 2
Ryan Nembhard S 17 0 2 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 39 27 9 11
Shaedon Sharpe S 33 24 5 5
Caleb Love 34 24 3 2
Donovan Clingan S 29 18 11 1
Rayan Rupert 28 9 3 2
Toumani Camara S 25 9 4 2
Robert Williams III 20 8 8 2
Sidy Cissoko S 22 6 5 1
Yang Hansen 10 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 6-foot two point shot (Cooper Flagg assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
12%
2 Jerami Grant POR
12%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
7 Kris Murray POR
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
9 Ryan Nembhard DAL
8%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.8 6.9 9.2
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 25.4 6.2 5.3
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 24.7 4.4 3.8
4 Jerami Grant POR 22.5 4.6 3.7
5 P.J. Washington DAL 18.4 8.0 1.9
6 Naji Marshall DAL 16.8 4.0 2.5
7 Toumani Camara POR 13.9 4.4 3.2
8 Donovan Clingan POR 12.9 10.6 2.0
9 Brandon Williams DAL 10.9 2.7 3.6
10 Klay Thompson DAL 10.6 3.2 1.4
11 Max Christie DAL 10.0 3.4 1.9
12 Ryan Nembhard DAL 9.7 2.6 5.6
13 Caleb Love POR 8.6 2.2 2.3
14 Sidy Cissoko POR 8.1 2.8 2.2
15 D'Angelo Russell DAL 7.6 1.7 2.6
16 Kris Murray POR 7.5 5.0 1.6
17 Robert Williams III POR 7.2 8.3 1.1
18 Blake Wesley POR 6.5 2.7 3.1
19 Daniel Gafford DAL 6.0 5.2 0.8
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.3 1.4 0.9
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.6 1.7 1.0
22 Dwight Powell DAL 4.5 3.9 1.1
23 Yang Hansen POR 3.9 2.6 1.2
24 Rayan Rupert POR 3.6 1.7 0.9
25 Duop Reath POR 3.2 1.4 0.7
26 Caleb Martin DAL 3.1 2.2 1.0
27 Moussa Cisse DAL 2.8 3.4 0.5
28 Javonte Cooke POR 2.2 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.