NBA games

CLE @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
113–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25242737113
SA26292323101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home SA
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 28 27 10 0
Evan Mobley S 29 16 7 2
Darius Garland S 31 15 5 11
De'Andre Hunter 24 11 9 2
Jaylon Tyson 22 11 3 2
Dean Wade S 25 10 5 0
Donovan Mitchell S 35 10 2 7
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 5 6 0 0
Sam Merrill 26 5 0 1
Craig Porter Jr. 15 2 6 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 27 26 14 3
Stephon Castle S 34 15 4 8
De'Aaron Fox S 32 14 2 3
Dylan Harper 17 11 4 1
Luke Kornet 23 10 9 3
Keldon Johnson 18 8 3 0
Julian Champagnie 24 7 6 0
Devin Vassell S 30 7 4 0
Harrison Barnes S 27 3 4 3
Carter Bryant 7 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 Stephon Castle SA
10%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
7 Victor Wembanyama SA
8%
8 Devin Vassell SA
7%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
13%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.4 4.2 5.9
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.3 10.8 4.3
3 Stephon Castle SA 23.1 4.7 7.3
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.0 4.3 6.6
5 Darius Garland CLE 20.0 3.2 6.6
6 Evan Mobley CLE 19.4 9.2 4.2
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 15.8 7.0 2.2
8 Devin Vassell SA 13.4 4.7 2.8
9 Dylan Harper SA 12.9 4.1 4.8
10 Harrison Barnes SA 12.1 3.0 1.8
11 Keldon Johnson SA 11.9 5.8 1.3
12 Sam Merrill CLE 11.7 3.1 3.1
13 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.6 3.4 1.5
14 Jarrett Allen CLE 10.9 7.0 2.3
15 Luke Kornet SA 9.8 7.5 1.4
16 Julian Champagnie SA 8.1 5.4 1.7
17 Dean Wade CLE 8.0 4.5 1.8
18 Thomas Bryant CLE 6.7 3.9 1.0
19 Lonzo Ball CLE 6.1 3.4 3.2
20 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.6 1.9 1.6
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.0 3.0 2.2
22 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.7 3.0 0.8
23 Jeremy Sochan SA 4.1 2.8 0.9
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.7 1.4 1.1
25 Carter Bryant SA 3.7 2.0 0.8
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.4 1.4 0.8
27 Lindy Waters III SA 3.3 1.4 0.7
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.8 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.