NBA games

ATL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
129–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL38362926129
OKC35354327140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home OKC
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 40 30 4 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 35 26 14 6
Vit Krejci S 34 18 1 2
Dyson Daniels S 35 13 6 7
Zaccharie Risacher S 23 12 4 0
Luke Kennard 31 12 4 5
Keaton Wallace 12 9 0 2
Asa Newell 20 9 0 2
Mouhamed Gueye 10 0 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 39 6 6
Chet Holmgren S 31 24 9 2
Jalen Williams S 33 20 9 7
Cason Wallace S 34 17 7 3
Alex Caruso 24 16 8 2
Ajay Mitchell 23 10 1 4
Luguentz Dort S 23 6 4 1
Branden Carlson 11 6 0 0
Aaron Wiggins 11 2 3 1
Kenrich Williams 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
14%
3 Trae Young ATL
14%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
12%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
0%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
50%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.5 5.1 6.9
2 Trae Young ATL 21.4 2.4 8.1
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.1 5.2 5.9
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.6 3.9 3.0
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.6 7.8 2.0
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.0 7.9 3.5
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.4 6.6 5.0
8 Ajay Mitchell OKC 12.6 4.1 3.7
9 Vit Krejci ATL 9.5 2.6 1.2
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 3.7 1.5
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.6 3.4 1.5
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.3 2.7 1.6
13 Cason Wallace OKC 7.8 3.2 2.0
14 Asa Newell ATL 7.4 2.6 1.0
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.3 2.7 1.4
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 7.1 3.1 1.9
17 Alex Caruso OKC 6.7 4.0 1.7
18 Branden Carlson OKC 6.1 2.8 1.0
19 Luke Kennard ATL 5.5 1.9 1.4
20 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.6 2.4 0.5
21 Chris Youngblood OKC 3.3 1.8 0.8
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.9 1.2 1.6
23 Caleb Houstan ATL 2.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.