NBA games

NY @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
130–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY37352434130
NO41342822125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home NO
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 28 3 10
OG Anunoby S 37 23 11 1
Mohamed Diawara S 18 18 1 0
Miles McBride 18 14 3 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 12 12 4
Jordan Clarkson 13 9 2 1
Guerschon Yabusele 16 9 2 1
Tyler Kolek 12 7 2 5
Mikal Bridges S 35 6 5 10
Trey Jemison III 4 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 29 32 5 2
Jordan Poole 26 26 3 2
Saddiq Bey S 37 26 6 6
Trey Murphy III S 38 21 6 2
Derik Queen S 29 7 9 5
Jeremiah Fears S 22 4 4 4
Micah Peavy 10 3 0 0
Kevon Looney 24 2 9 3
Yves Missi 14 2 6 2
Jordan Hawkins 12 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mohamed Diawara · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Mohamed Diawara makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Derik Queen NO
13%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
12%
5 Jeremiah Fears NO
11%
6 OG Anunoby NY
11%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
8 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
9 Mohamed Diawara NY
8%
10 Zion Williamson NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
12%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 29.2 3.8 7.3
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.3 6.3 3.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.9 11.9 2.8
4 Trey Murphy III NO 21.8 4.9 3.8
5 Derik Queen NO 18.2 9.1 5.4
6 Mikal Bridges NY 17.2 4.6 4.9
7 Jordan Poole NO 17.2 2.7 3.9
8 OG Anunoby NY 17.0 5.2 2.6
9 Saddiq Bey NO 16.1 5.8 2.0
10 Miles McBride NY 13.3 2.7 2.2
11 Jeremiah Fears NO 13.3 4.1 3.6
12 Jordan Clarkson NY 10.6 2.5 1.4
13 Tyler Kolek NY 9.2 3.5 4.6
14 Jose Alvarado NO 8.0 2.6 3.8
15 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 5.6 2.7 1.6
16 Yves Missi NO 4.7 4.5 0.8
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.2 1.3 0.5
18 Micah Peavy NO 4.1 1.7 0.9
19 Karlo Matkovic NO 3.9 3.5 0.8
20 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.6 1.6 0.9
21 Trey Jemison III NY 3.1 2.4 0.5
22 Trey Alexander NO 3.1 0.8 0.6
23 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.0 1.4 0.5
24 Kevon Looney NO 2.6 2.8 0.8
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.1 2.5 0.5
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.8 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.