NBA games

IND @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
119–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND25233041119
HOU30363921126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home HOU
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 31 23 4 4
Aaron Nesmith 24 14 3 3
Bennedict Mathurin S 26 14 3 4
Jarace Walker 24 12 2 3
Andrew Nembhard S 29 11 1 2
Johnny Furphy S 20 9 4 1
Jay Huff S 19 8 3 1
Quenton Jackson 4 7 0 0
T.J. McConnell 16 6 1 4
Taelon Peter 4 6 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 34 30 6 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 34 21 10 2
Amen Thompson S 37 20 8 7
Reed Sheppard 24 13 1 3
Tari Eason S 29 13 8 1
Steven Adams S 22 8 5 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 16 6 2 0
Clint Capela 13 6 7 1
Josh Okogie 13 3 3 0
Jae'Sean Tate 9 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jay Huff · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jay Huff makes 3-foot reverse dunk (Bennedict Mathurin assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
15%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
5 Steven Adams HOU
9%
6 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 Tari Eason HOU
8%
9 Jay Huff IND
8%
10 Johnny Furphy IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 26.6 5.1 5.3
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.9 5.9 3.5
3 Amen Thompson HOU 20.7 8.2 5.5
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.7 3.1 7.5
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 18.5 6.8 2.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.4 5.2 2.0
7 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.6 3.5 4.1
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 14.4 4.1 1.8
9 Tari Eason HOU 10.5 4.9 1.6
10 Jay Huff IND 9.1 5.1 1.7
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 2.4 4.1
12 Quenton Jackson IND 8.1 2.3 2.4
13 Josh Okogie HOU 7.3 3.3 1.3
14 Ethan Thompson IND 6.9 2.6 1.8
15 Steven Adams HOU 6.8 7.3 1.5
16 Jarace Walker IND 6.1 2.9 1.1
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.0 1.8 1.1
18 Johnny Furphy IND 5.4 2.4 0.7
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.4 2.4 1.0
20 Clint Capela HOU 4.3 4.6 0.6
21 Micah Potter IND 3.7 1.9 0.5
22 Tony Bradley IND 3.3 1.8 0.4
23 Kam Jones IND 3.2 0.8 0.5
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.1 1.3 0.6
25 JD Davison HOU 2.6 1.3 1.0
26 Taelon Peter IND 2.3 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.