NBA games

MIN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
136–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN21344041136
CHI23272823101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CHI
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 27 33 7 3
Anthony Edwards S 32 23 2 4
Julius Randle S 28 17 5 14
Donte DiVincenzo S 27 12 6 3
Bones Hyland 14 12 0 1
Jaylen Clark 19 11 4 0
Rudy Gobert S 30 9 10 1
Jaden McDaniels S 23 7 5 3
Rob Dillingham 6 5 0 0
Leonard Miller 6 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 30 23 5 2
Matas Buzelis S 24 13 5 2
Jalen Smith 26 12 6 1
Josh Giddey S 18 11 4 3
Tre Jones 21 11 2 4
Ayo Dosunmu 32 10 6 7
Kevin Huerter 22 8 6 1
Patrick Williams 20 7 3 2
Isaac Okoro S 20 4 3 0
Julian Phillips 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donte DiVincenzo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
3 Coby White CHI
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
8 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
12%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 29.5 6.1 4.4
2 Julius Randle MIN 24.4 6.0 5.7
3 Coby White CHI 20.0 4.1 4.5
4 Josh Giddey CHI 19.1 7.3 8.5
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.2 4.6 3.9
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.1 7.1 2.9
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.0 4.8 1.5
8 Naz Reid MIN 14.9 6.8 2.7
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.1 5.3 5.0
10 Tre Jones CHI 11.9 2.8 4.4
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.7 11.3 1.8
12 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 10.9 2.7 2.7
13 Kevin Huerter CHI 10.5 3.2 1.9
14 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.0 2.6 1.2
15 Bones Hyland MIN 8.8 2.3 3.2
16 Jalen Smith CHI 6.4 5.5 1.3
17 Patrick Williams CHI 5.3 2.4 0.9
18 Mike Conley MIN 5.1 1.8 2.3
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.7 1.7 0.8
20 Jevon Carter CHI 4.1 1.2 0.8
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.7 1.8 1.8
22 Julian Phillips CHI 3.4 1.5 0.5
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.3 2.0 1.3
24 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.1 1.3 0.6
25 Joan Beringer MIN 2.8 1.7 0.6
26 Leonard Miller MIN 2.6 1.4 0.7
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.6 0.9 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.