NBA games

ORL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
106–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL29362912106
TOR18363023107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home TOR
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Black S 32 27 3 3
Paolo Banchero S 38 23 15 10
Desmond Bane S 30 18 6 3
Tyus Jones S 28 10 4 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 9 6 2
Jase Richardson 20 7 3 4
Tristan da Silva 27 6 6 1
Jamal Cain 12 3 3 0
Goga Bitadze 16 2 5 0
Noah Penda 5 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Shead 29 19 4 5
Brandon Ingram S 34 17 9 4
Gradey Dick 15 15 1 0
Scottie Barnes S 37 13 11 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili S 23 13 4 1
Ochai Agbaji S 20 10 4 3
Ja'Kobe Walter 24 10 7 0
Immanuel Quickley S 25 4 5 5
Collin Murray-Boyles 25 4 12 2
Jamison Battle 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ochai Agbaji · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Ochai Agbaji makes dunk (Brandon Ingram assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Black ORL
15%
2 Brandon Ingram TOR
15%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
5 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
9 Tyus Jones ORL
6%
10 Jonathan Isaac ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
33%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 25.4 5.8 4.6
2 Anthony Black ORL 21.6 6.0 5.0
3 Desmond Bane ORL 21.3 4.9 4.8
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.0 7.8 4.9
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.8 4.1 6.7
6 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.3 10.0 5.7
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.3 7.1 2.0
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.7 5.7 1.7
9 Jamal Shead TOR 9.9 2.9 5.6
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.3 3.4 1.3
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.2 2.0 1.4
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.1 3.7 1.3
13 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 6.9 4.1 1.5
14 Jase Richardson ORL 6.7 2.3 1.4
15 Tyus Jones ORL 6.6 1.9 3.0
16 Gradey Dick TOR 5.2 2.0 1.1
17 Noah Penda ORL 5.1 4.4 1.2
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.5 4.4 0.7
19 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.2 1.7 0.6
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.2 1.7 0.9
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.1 2.1 1.0
22 Jamal Cain ORL 4.0 1.6 0.6
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.8 2.9 0.5
24 Orlando Robinson ORL 3.0 1.7 0.7
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.7 1.2 0.7
26 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.7 1.5 0.8
27 Alijah Martin TOR 2.6 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.