NBA games

DEN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
123–147
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29343624123
MIA41224737147

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIA
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 19 21 5 8
Jamal Murray S 35 20 6 11
Spencer Jones S 33 16 3 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 28 16 3 2
Bruce Brown 26 15 5 2
Peyton Watson S 32 11 2 1
Jonas Valanciunas 16 6 4 1
Zeke Nnaji 9 4 0 0
Julian Strawther 14 4 1 1
DaRon Holmes II 8 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 28 25 1 4
Nikola Jovic 26 22 4 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 20 3 11
Andrew Wiggins S 31 19 5 6
Kel'el Ware S 24 19 9 0
Bam Adebayo S 21 13 10 4
Dru Smith 21 11 4 1
Davion Mitchell S 32 10 3 9
Simone Fontecchio 3 3 0 0
Pelle Larsson 15 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 10-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
11%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
5 Norman Powell MIA
10%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
7 Peyton Watson DEN
7%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
9 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
10 Kel'el Ware MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
37%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.9 11.2 11.1
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.6 4.2 7.4
3 Norman Powell MIA 22.5 4.6 3.9
4 Tyler Herro MIA 21.3 4.4 2.6
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 20.6 4.6 4.1
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.3 10.4 2.6
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.3 4.8 2.9
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.8 3.4 1.5
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.1 10.0 1.3
10 Peyton Watson DEN 12.3 4.5 1.4
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.4 2.4 6.5
12 Bruce Brown DEN 10.3 4.9 2.6
13 Spencer Jones DEN 9.2 3.8 1.6
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 8.8 2.9 3.4
15 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.0 4.4 1.3
16 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.1 3.6 3.4
17 Simone Fontecchio MIA 7.0 2.9 1.9
18 Dru Smith MIA 6.6 2.7 2.5
19 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.8 1.7 2.0
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.7 2.2 1.8
21 Julian Strawther DEN 4.2 1.7 0.8
22 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.1 2.7 0.6
23 Myron Gardner MIA 3.7 2.2 0.7
24 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.0 1.3 0.7
25 Curtis Jones DEN 2.6 0.8 0.6
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.2 1.4 0.6
27 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.5 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.