NBA games

GS @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
120–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS28313031120
BKN30272822107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home BKN
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 29 27 2 5
Jimmy Butler III S 31 21 5 4
Trayce Jackson-Davis 22 11 6 1
De'Anthony Melton 24 10 8 1
Will Richard 23 10 1 3
Gary Payton II 10 10 0 1
Draymond Green S 25 7 5 3
Brandin Podziemski 20 7 2 2
Buddy Hield 11 6 3 0
Moses Moody S 12 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 27 9 5
Egor Demin S 32 23 3 3
Nic Claxton S 36 15 9 4
Cam Thomas 19 13 0 2
Noah Clowney S 25 11 5 2
Nolan Traore 15 9 0 0
Terance Mann S 28 4 2 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 12 3 5 0
Drake Powell 17 2 0 0
Danny Wolf 20 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
15%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
13%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
4 Noah Clowney BKN
11%
5 Quinten Post GS
9%
6 Egor Demin BKN
9%
7 Terance Mann BKN
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Stephen Curry GS
7%
10 Moses Moody GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.6 5.1 5.2
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 26.2 7.2 3.9
3 Cam Thomas BKN 21.1 2.4 3.6
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 20.1 5.7 5.1
5 Noah Clowney BKN 16.4 4.7 2.5
6 Nic Claxton BKN 14.3 8.9 4.7
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.9 4.2 3.7
8 Egor Demin BKN 11.4 2.8 3.5
9 Draymond Green GS 10.7 6.0 3.8
10 Quinten Post GS 9.8 5.2 2.0
11 Moses Moody GS 9.7 3.6 1.8
12 Danny Wolf BKN 9.5 4.8 2.0
13 Terance Mann BKN 8.9 3.9 3.7
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.5 5.9 3.0
15 Pat Spencer GS 8.0 2.4 2.9
16 Will Richard GS 7.9 3.2 1.1
17 Buddy Hield GS 7.6 3.3 1.4
18 Ziaire Williams BKN 7.4 2.3 1.0
19 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.0 4.5 1.7
20 De'Anthony Melton GS 6.4 1.7 1.8
21 Drake Powell BKN 6.3 2.0 1.8
22 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.9 2.5 1.4
23 Gary Payton II GS 4.8 2.8 2.1
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.9 4.5 0.7
25 Nolan Traore BKN 3.9 1.5 1.6
26 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.8 1.5 0.7
27 Gui Santos GS 3.7 1.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.