NBA games

PHX @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
115–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX22392628115
WSH23312522101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home WSH
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 33 26 3 0
Collin Gillespie S 29 25 4 6
Devin Booker S 35 22 6 5
Royce O'Neale S 33 15 5 4
Jordan Goodwin 28 14 7 2
Oso Ighodaro S 30 6 10 3
Isaiah Livers 10 3 2 2
Jamaree Bouyea 13 2 1 3
Nick Richards 17 2 9 0
Rasheer Fleming 12 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Johnson S 25 24 1 2
CJ McCollum S 28 17 3 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 27 13 7 3
Justin Champagnie 27 11 6 0
Bub Carrington 27 10 5 4
Will Riley 21 10 5 1
Marvin Bagley III 22 7 7 2
Malaki Branham 20 4 3 1
Jamir Watkins S 17 3 4 0
Alex Sarr S 25 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes 3-foot dunk (Tre Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
13%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
13%
4 CJ McCollum WSH
11%
5 Oso Ighodaro PHX
10%
6 Tre Johnson WSH
10%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Collin Gillespie PHX
9%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
25%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.2 4.8 6.4
2 CJ McCollum WSH 21.4 4.2 4.3
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 21.0 3.6 2.4
4 Alex Sarr WSH 17.5 8.3 2.1
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.0 4.5 5.8
6 Bub Carrington WSH 15.8 4.4 4.6
7 Marvin Bagley III WSH 13.0 7.2 2.0
8 Mark Williams PHX 12.7 7.1 1.6
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.8 4.7 2.1
10 Tre Johnson WSH 10.8 3.0 1.9
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.3 3.8 2.5
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.5 4.1 3.7
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.1 7.9 1.3
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.4 3.5 1.3
15 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 8.2 2.7 1.8
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.1 5.9 2.0
17 Will Riley WSH 6.5 2.3 1.5
18 Malaki Branham WSH 4.4 1.8 0.8
19 Rasheer Fleming PHX 4.4 1.8 0.7
20 Isaiah Livers PHX 4.3 3.0 1.0
21 Jamir Watkins WSH 3.5 2.2 0.7
22 Nick Richards PHX 3.2 3.2 0.8
23 AJ Johnson WSH 1.9 1.1 0.6
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.9 1.3 0.4
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.8 1.3 0.4
26 Anthony Gill WSH 1.5 0.9 0.3
27 Sharife Cooper WSH 1.4 0.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.