NBA games

MIL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
123–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL25383228123
CHA26402324113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHA
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bobby Portis 23 25 2 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 25 24 4 7
Myles Turner S 31 23 6 1
Kevin Porter Jr. S 38 15 5 11
Ryan Rollins S 31 13 3 4
Gary Trent Jr. 20 9 1 1
Kyle Kuzma 26 6 5 2
AJ Green S 27 5 3 2
Gary Harris 17 3 2 0
Jericho Sims 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 38 31 8 5
LaMelo Ball S 29 26 2 7
Collin Sexton 19 16 1 8
Moussa Diabate S 35 14 9 3
Josh Green 23 10 2 1
Liam McNeeley 12 7 5 2
PJ Hall 16 3 2 0
Miles Bridges S 7 3 3 0
Tidjane Salaun 28 3 11 1
Sion James S 29 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 23-foot running jump shot (Brandon Miller assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
13%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
12%
6 Ryan Rollins MIL
10%
7 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
8 Myles Turner MIL
9%
9 AJ Green MIL
7%
10 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
26%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.5 8.3 5.6
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 23.3 5.9 9.0
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.1 4.5 8.3
4 Brandon Miller CHA 19.5 4.8 3.8
5 Miles Bridges CHA 19.4 6.7 4.9
6 Ryan Rollins MIL 17.2 4.5 6.0
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.9 8.5 2.0
8 Collin Sexton CHA 15.5 2.6 3.4
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.8 6.0 2.9
10 Myles Turner MIL 11.6 3.9 1.5
11 AJ Green MIL 10.5 2.8 2.0
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 8.5 1.7 1.1
13 Tidjane Salaun CHA 8.5 3.9 1.2
14 Sion James CHA 7.9 3.2 1.5
15 Jericho Sims MIL 7.0 6.2 1.2
16 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.1 7.3 1.3
17 Tre Mann CHA 5.2 2.1 1.5
18 Josh Green CHA 5.0 1.5 1.0
19 Gary Harris MIL 4.6 2.3 1.2
20 Liam McNeeley CHA 4.2 1.7 0.5
21 PJ Hall CHA 3.9 2.9 0.6
22 Cole Anthony MIL 3.6 1.6 1.4
23 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.5 1.4 0.7
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.4 1.3 1.0
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.7 1.5 0.5
26 Amir Coffey MIL 2.4 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.