NBA games

SAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
101–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC24292721101
LAL30383126125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAL
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 34 22 4 5
Maxime Raynaud S 35 16 10 2
Russell Westbrook S 26 13 5 4
Dennis Schroder 19 11 2 7
Malik Monk 19 11 2 2
Nique Clifford 29 11 6 3
Dylan Cardwell 24 7 7 0
Precious Achiuwa S 20 5 3 1
Doug McDermott 12 3 0 0
Keon Ellis S 22 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 33 34 5 7
LeBron James S 29 24 3 5
Nick Smith Jr. 24 21 3 1
Rui Hachimura S 26 12 4 1
Deandre Ayton S 30 11 11 2
Jake LaRavia 25 11 2 4
Jarred Vanderbilt 22 5 2 0
Dalton Knecht 5 3 1 0
Maxi Kleber 13 2 3 2
Adou Thiero 5 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"LeBron James makes two point shot (Rui Hachimura assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
20%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
3 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
4 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
5 LeBron James LAL
10%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
7 Precious Achiuwa SAC
7%
8 Nick Smith Jr. LAL
6%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
13%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 32.6 8.2 9.4
2 LeBron James LAL 23.7 5.3 6.7
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 20.9 4.4 4.3
4 Russell Westbrook SAC 20.6 6.0 8.6
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC 16.8 9.0 2.0
6 Dennis Schroder SAC 15.3 3.6 6.0
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 14.6 10.0 1.4
8 Marcus Smart LAL 11.0 3.3 2.5
9 Malik Monk SAC 10.3 2.9 2.8
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.2 3.6 1.1
11 Nique Clifford SAC 8.0 3.7 1.3
12 Precious Achiuwa SAC 7.8 5.7 1.3
13 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.6 4.3 1.7
14 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 7.0 1.3 1.1
15 Keon Ellis SAC 5.5 1.9 1.0
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.3 4.0 1.3
17 Dylan Cardwell SAC 4.6 5.2 1.0
18 Doug McDermott SAC 4.3 1.4 0.7
19 Dario Saric SAC 3.5 1.2 0.4
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.4 1.6 0.7
21 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.9 1.8 0.7
22 Bronny James LAL 2.8 1.0 1.2
23 Drew Timme LAL 2.1 1.5 0.8
24 Adou Thiero LAL 2.1 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.