NBA games

DET @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
99–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2022273099
LAC33273220112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home LAC
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 32 27 5 9
Jalen Duren S 31 18 14 2
Jaden Ivey 29 11 3 3
Isaiah Stewart 24 8 4 0
Javonte Green 13 7 3 0
Ausar Thompson S 24 6 6 1
Tobias Harris S 22 6 0 1
Duncan Robinson S 27 5 4 0
Ronald Holland II 18 4 3 2
Caris LeVert 13 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 39 55 11 2
James Harden S 40 28 4 7
Nicolas Batum S 31 12 4 1
Brook Lopez S 36 7 7 2
Kris Dunn S 30 5 1 3
Derrick Jones Jr. 18 3 3 0
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 12 2 2 0
Jordan Miller 17 0 3 1
Kobe Sanders 16 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
14%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Jalen Duren DET
13%
4 James Harden LAC
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Tobias Harris DET
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Brook Lopez LAC
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
16%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 27.1 7.0 4.5
2 James Harden LAC 25.2 4.1 7.2
3 Cade Cunningham DET 24.2 6.1 9.9
4 Jalen Duren DET 15.4 8.9 1.7
5 Tobias Harris DET 13.0 4.8 2.6
6 Ausar Thompson DET 12.8 6.1 2.7
7 Duncan Robinson DET 11.0 3.1 1.8
8 Kris Dunn LAC 10.7 3.3 3.6
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.6 3.2 1.3
10 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.1 5.0 1.3
11 Ronald Holland II DET 9.1 4.4 1.3
12 Jaden Ivey DET 8.0 2.5 2.1
13 Caris LeVert DET 7.4 2.6 2.7
14 Kobe Sanders LAC 7.3 2.7 1.6
15 Brook Lopez LAC 7.1 2.8 1.0
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.5 2.7 1.3
17 Javonte Green DET 6.4 2.2 1.0
18 Jordan Miller LAC 5.7 2.8 1.1
19 Daniss Jenkins DET 5.0 1.9 1.7
20 Paul Reed DET 4.1 3.1 0.7
21 Kobe Brown LAC 4.1 1.9 0.8
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.4 2.1 0.6
23 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.1 2.0 0.5
24 Chaz Lanier DET 3.0 1.0 0.5
25 Marcus Sasser DET 2.6 0.6 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.