NBA games

BOS @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
108–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS30332223108
POR31243128114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home POR
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 37 7 4
Anfernee Simons 19 13 3 1
Hugo Gonzalez 30 13 6 3
Derrick White S 40 12 4 5
Neemias Queta S 29 11 8 0
Payton Pritchard S 38 9 5 5
Luka Garza 11 5 3 0
Jordan Walsh S 10 5 1 0
Sam Hauser 19 3 2 0
Baylor Scheierman 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 26 5 1
Deni Avdija S 39 24 7 10
Toumani Camara S 35 20 4 3
Caleb Love 29 18 2 3
Donovan Clingan S 34 18 18 1
Kris Murray S 30 5 5 3
Yang Hansen 11 3 3 0
Sidy Cissoko 22 0 3 4
Rayan Rupert 8 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 16-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
2 Jerami Grant POR
10%
3 Deni Avdija POR
10%
4 Derrick White BOS
9%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
7%
10 Kris Murray POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
24%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 31.1 6.5 6.6
2 Deni Avdija POR 26.6 6.7 7.8
3 Derrick White BOS 24.4 4.8 5.3
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.3 4.4 3.8
5 Jerami Grant POR 20.5 4.6 3.4
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.6 4.6 6.0
7 Toumani Camara POR 12.4 4.2 3.0
8 Donovan Clingan POR 11.5 9.6 2.0
9 Anfernee Simons BOS 11.2 2.6 1.8
10 Jordan Walsh BOS 10.8 5.8 1.4
11 Neemias Queta BOS 10.7 7.2 1.6
12 Sidy Cissoko POR 8.6 2.6 1.7
13 Caleb Love POR 8.2 2.0 1.7
14 Sam Hauser BOS 7.9 3.5 1.2
15 Kris Murray POR 7.0 4.1 1.3
16 Robert Williams III POR 7.0 7.7 1.0
17 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.6 4.9 1.0
18 Luka Garza BOS 6.4 3.7 1.2
19 Blake Wesley POR 6.2 2.5 2.8
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 1.2 0.8
21 Josh Minott BOS 4.6 2.2 0.7
22 Chris Boucher BOS 4.2 3.1 0.6
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.5 1.7 1.0
24 Duop Reath POR 3.4 1.5 0.7
25 Rayan Rupert POR 3.3 1.5 0.6
26 Yang Hansen POR 2.6 1.8 0.8
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.5 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.