NBA games

MEM @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
112–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM27322924112
WSH25352432116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home WSH
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 31 8 1
Ja Morant S 27 21 0 7
Santi Aldama S 35 14 10 3
Jaylen Wells S 28 11 7 3
Cedric Coward S 23 11 6 3
Cam Spencer 27 8 3 7
GG Jackson 21 5 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 11 4 1 1
Christian Koloko 25 4 7 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 8 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 26 20 9 1
CJ McCollum S 33 16 4 5
Bilal Coulibaly S 29 14 8 2
Tre Johnson S 26 14 0 4
Marvin Bagley III 22 14 7 1
Bub Carrington 27 12 4 7
Khris Middleton S 23 10 6 2
Justin Champagnie 25 10 12 0
Malaki Branham 11 6 0 0
Will Riley 19 0 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Ja Morant makes alley oop layup (Santi Aldama assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
14%
2 Alex Sarr WSH
13%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 CJ McCollum WSH
11%
5 Cedric Coward MEM
11%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
11%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
9%
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
36%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 CJ McCollum WSH 21.0 4.1 4.3
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.5 6.6 3.0
3 Cam Spencer MEM 19.3 3.5 7.1
4 Ja Morant MEM 18.5 4.2 9.0
5 Alex Sarr WSH 17.9 8.9 2.2
6 Santi Aldama MEM 17.1 6.4 3.4
7 Cedric Coward MEM 16.0 6.8 3.7
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.3 3.9 2.5
9 Bub Carrington WSH 14.9 4.2 4.4
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH 13.3 7.2 2.0
11 Khris Middleton WSH 12.4 4.4 3.8
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.0 4.5 2.4
13 Jock Landale MEM 10.3 6.7 1.7
14 Tre Johnson WSH 10.2 3.0 1.6
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 10.1 2.8 4.2
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.5 7.5 1.4
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.9 3.6 1.4
18 Will Riley WSH 7.7 2.3 1.5
19 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.8 3.0 4.8
20 GG Jackson MEM 5.6 3.2 0.8
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 4.7 2.0 1.1
22 Malaki Branham WSH 4.3 1.8 1.0
23 Jamir Watkins WSH 4.2 2.5 0.8
24 Christian Koloko MEM 3.6 3.5 1.0
25 AJ Johnson WSH 2.4 1.4 0.6
26 Anthony Gill WSH 1.7 0.9 0.3
27 Sharife Cooper WSH 1.5 0.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.