NBA games

PHI @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
104–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI29332418104
OKC32323827129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home OKC
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 36 28 2 5
Quentin Grimes 22 13 2 3
Paul George S 29 12 4 3
Justin Edwards 20 12 5 1
Adem Bona 28 11 8 1
VJ Edgecombe S 34 10 2 5
Jared McCain 23 10 4 1
Andre Drummond S 18 4 4 0
Dominick Barlow S 25 2 4 2
Jabari Walker 4 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 29 29 9 1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 27 2 5
Aaron Wiggins 23 15 3 3
Jalen Williams S 32 14 4 6
Ajay Mitchell 20 13 1 3
Cason Wallace 26 9 4 4
Alex Caruso 16 7 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 5 3 3
Branden Carlson 6 4 2 0
Kenrich Williams 7 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 12-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
16%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
8 Paul George PHI
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
10 Quentin Grimes PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
16%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.4 5.1 6.7
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.7 4.5 6.1
3 Jalen Williams OKC 19.5 5.2 5.7
4 Paul George PHI 18.3 5.4 3.6
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.8 7.5 1.8
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 16.3 4.9 3.5
7 Quentin Grimes PHI 13.3 4.3 4.6
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.3 10.0 3.0
9 Ajay Mitchell OKC 10.6 3.5 2.8
10 Dominick Barlow PHI 10.2 5.8 1.5
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.8 3.5 1.3
12 Jared McCain PHI 8.6 3.2 2.6
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.2 2.5 1.4
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.5 2.7 1.5
15 Cason Wallace OKC 7.3 3.1 1.6
16 Andre Drummond PHI 6.7 7.9 1.3
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.3 2.6 1.7
18 Alex Caruso OKC 6.2 3.6 1.8
19 Branden Carlson OKC 5.6 2.3 1.0
20 Adem Bona PHI 5.6 3.9 0.6
21 Jabari Walker PHI 5.5 4.1 0.7
22 Justin Edwards PHI 4.2 1.8 1.1
23 Eric Gordon PHI 3.8 0.6 0.4
24 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.7 1.4 0.7
25 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.8 0.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.