NBA games

GS @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
127–141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
GS293536225127
TOR3332312619141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home TOR
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 41 39 3 4
Draymond Green S 33 21 4 7
Jimmy Butler III S 38 19 6 5
Brandin Podziemski 28 13 3 2
Will Richard 35 10 7 1
Quinten Post S 18 8 2 2
Al Horford 17 7 7 0
Gary Payton II 12 4 1 2
Moses Moody S 29 3 6 1
Buddy Hield 14 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 38 27 4 7
Brandon Ingram S 39 26 4 6
Scottie Barnes S 42 23 25 10
Ja'Kobe Walter 33 18 2 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 22 13 6 0
RJ Barrett S 24 12 7 4
Ochai Agbaji S 20 10 4 1
Jamal Shead 29 8 0 8
Gradey Dick 15 4 2 1
Garrett Temple 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Quinten Post · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Quinten Post makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
29%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
9%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
8%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
6%
8 Draymond Green GS
6%
9 Quinten Post GS
5%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
49%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
26%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.0 5.2 5.4
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.2 5.9 4.4
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.9 5.6 5.0
4 RJ Barrett TOR 19.2 4.9 4.1
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.8 8.3 5.2
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 17.6 4.2 6.2
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.6 4.5 4.0
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.8 5.8 1.9
9 Draymond Green GS 9.9 6.3 3.9
10 Quinten Post GS 9.7 5.3 2.0
11 Moses Moody GS 9.5 3.4 1.8
12 Jamal Shead TOR 9.1 2.8 4.8
13 Pat Spencer GS 8.1 2.5 2.9
14 Will Richard GS 7.5 3.1 1.0
15 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.2 4.8 1.7
16 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.0 2.0 1.3
17 Buddy Hield GS 6.8 3.1 1.1
18 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.6 3.3 1.2
19 Al Horford GS 6.4 4.6 1.9
20 Gary Payton II GS 5.8 3.5 2.0
21 Gradey Dick TOR 5.2 1.9 0.9
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.9 4.7 0.9
23 Jamison Battle TOR 4.1 2.1 0.8
24 Gui Santos GS 3.8 1.9 1.0
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.1 0.6
26 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.5 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.