NBA games

UTAH @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
127114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH32382829127
SA40202727114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home SA
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 34 29 5 1
Keyonte George S 35 28 5 6
Walter Clayton Jr. 22 17 2 5
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 16 7 6
Brice Sensabaugh S 34 11 4 3
Cody Williams 19 8 6 1
Isaiah Collier 15 7 1 4
Kyle Filipowski 22 6 3 6
Svi Mykhailiuk S 14 3 1 1
Taylor Hendricks 18 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 28 32 7 3
Keldon Johnson 25 27 10 1
Stephon Castle S 33 20 2 7
Devin Vassell S 35 11 3 3
Dylan Harper 27 7 7 12
Luke Kornet 19 7 8 1
Julian Champagnie S 26 4 5 0
Harrison Barnes S 23 3 2 2
Carter Bryant 14 3 2 0
Jordan McLaughlin 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brice Sensabaugh · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Brice Sensabaugh makes 13-foot two point shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
16%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
15%
3 Luke Kornet SA
14%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
12%
5 Devin Vassell SA
11%
6 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
11%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
11%
8 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
10%
9 Cody Williams UTAH
0%
10 Kyle Anderson UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
22%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 26.6 4.7 6.7
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.9 7.9 2.9
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.6 10.6 4.9
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.9 4.4 7.4
5 Devin Vassell SA 14.7 4.8 3.0
6 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 13.1 10.0 5.1
7 Harrison Barnes SA 12.3 3.3 2.0
8 Dylan Harper SA 12.2 3.9 4.0
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 11.8 7.3 1.9
10 Keldon Johnson SA 10.9 5.9 1.2
11 Luke Kornet SA 10.0 8.1 1.6
12 Isaiah Collier UTAH 10.0 2.3 6.9
13 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 9.2 2.7 1.7
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.1 3.0 1.8
15 Julian Champagnie SA 8.2 5.5 1.9
16 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 7.0 1.8 2.5
17 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.5 2.6 0.9
18 Kyle Anderson UTAH 4.7 2.1 2.4
19 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.3 1.9 1.1
20 Jeremy Sochan SA 4.2 3.3 0.9
21 Jordan McLaughlin SA 4.1 1.6 1.3
22 Carter Bryant SA 3.7 2.1 0.9
23 Lindy Waters III SA 3.5 1.6 0.8
24 Cody Williams UTAH 3.2 1.5 0.8
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.4 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.