NBA games

CLE @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
100–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE24221737100
HOU32283027117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home HOU
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylon Tyson 30 23 15 0
Donovan Mitchell S 30 16 3 6
Sam Merrill S 25 13 3 3
Darius Garland S 24 12 0 1
Tyrese Proctor 7 7 0 1
Thomas Bryant 12 7 7 2
Dean Wade S 18 6 3 1
Jarrett Allen S 18 6 4 2
Evan Mobley 20 4 4 2
Lonzo Ball 18 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 29 30 4 7
Reed Sheppard 32 18 3 8
Jabari Smith Jr. S 26 15 7 2
Amen Thompson S 33 13 9 4
Tari Eason S 21 9 6 0
Steven Adams S 22 9 8 1
Josh Okogie 13 8 0 0
Clint Capela 18 4 8 0
Jeff Green 5 3 0 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 16 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sam Merrill · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
19%
2 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
13%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Darius Garland CLE
12%
5 Tari Eason HOU
10%
6 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
7 Dean Wade CLE
8%
8 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
9 Donovan Mitchell CLE
7%
10 Evan Mobley CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.3 3.9 6.0
2 Kevin Durant HOU 25.9 4.8 6.0
3 Amen Thompson HOU 21.4 8.1 6.4
4 Darius Garland CLE 21.0 3.0 7.0
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.1 9.1 3.9
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 18.3 6.8 2.6
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE 14.6 5.7 2.1
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.2 3.6 3.6
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.1 6.6 2.2
10 Sam Merrill CLE 11.3 2.8 2.8
11 De'Andre Hunter CLE 11.3 3.0 1.3
12 Tari Eason HOU 10.7 4.7 1.7
13 Josh Okogie HOU 7.5 3.7 1.6
14 Thomas Bryant CLE 7.2 3.4 0.8
15 Dean Wade CLE 7.1 4.2 1.7
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.9 1.9 1.3
17 Lonzo Ball CLE 6.8 3.7 3.8
18 Steven Adams HOU 6.7 7.2 1.5
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.4 2.0 1.1
20 Clint Capela HOU 3.9 4.2 0.7
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.9 1.3 1.0
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.7 2.7 1.7
23 Jeff Green HOU 2.9 1.2 0.7
24 JD Davison HOU 2.6 1.1 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.