NBA games

MIL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
112–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28263127112
CHI26243023103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHI
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 25 29 8 1
Ryan Rollins S 35 20 7 5
Bobby Portis 24 17 11 1
Myles Turner S 27 13 5 1
Kyle Kuzma 23 12 2 4
Kevin Porter Jr. S 39 8 6 9
AJ Green S 28 6 2 1
Jericho Sims 17 4 6 0
Gary Harris 22 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 29 16 2 1
Nikola Vucevic S 26 16 7 1
Josh Giddey S 26 13 7 9
Ayo Dosunmu 21 11 2 0
Zach Collins 24 10 10 2
Isaac Okoro S 19 10 4 2
Matas Buzelis S 22 8 3 2
Kevin Huerter 24 7 6 4
Tre Jones 22 6 1 6
Jalen Smith 22 6 10 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Coby White makes 23-foot running jump shot (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
11%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
11%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
6 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
10%
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
8 Bobby Portis MIL
8%
9 Myles Turner MIL
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
23%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.5 8.8 6.2
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 23.9 5.8 9.1
3 Coby White CHI 21.6 4.0 5.2
4 Josh Giddey CHI 20.9 7.8 9.6
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 17.1 4.3 6.1
6 Bobby Portis MIL 16.0 7.7 2.1
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.6 7.5 3.0
8 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.5 4.9 1.7
9 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.0 5.8 3.0
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.9 2.8 3.0
11 Tre Jones CHI 12.9 2.9 4.7
12 Myles Turner MIL 11.7 3.8 1.7
13 AJ Green MIL 11.5 3.1 2.8
14 Kevin Huerter CHI 10.3 2.8 2.0
15 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.1 2.5 1.2
16 Zach Collins CHI 9.0 4.6 1.6
17 Jericho Sims MIL 7.2 6.2 1.3
18 Jalen Smith CHI 6.9 5.5 1.4
19 Patrick Williams CHI 5.3 2.6 0.9
20 Gary Harris MIL 4.9 2.3 1.3
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.3 1.1 0.8
22 Cole Anthony MIL 3.8 1.7 1.5
23 Julian Phillips CHI 3.6 1.5 0.5
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.5 1.4 1.1
25 Dalen Terry CHI 3.4 1.9 1.3
26 Pete Nance MIL 3.2 1.5 0.7
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.9 1.6 0.6
28 Amir Coffey MIL 2.6 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.