NBA games

IND @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
116–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND28323422116
MIA29303944142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home MIA
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 33 7 5
Bennedict Mathurin S 35 25 6 0
Andrew Nembhard S 34 15 3 16
Jay Huff S 22 11 1 2
Johnny Furphy S 21 9 7 1
Aaron Nesmith 19 9 5 1
Quenton Jackson 14 4 0 3
Tony Bradley 11 3 4 0
Jarace Walker 21 3 3 1
Kam Jones 3 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 31 28 6 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 29 28 6 3
Norman Powell S 28 23 5 2
Nikola Jovic 25 19 7 7
Pelle Larsson S 27 16 4 7
Kel'el Ware S 29 15 7 0
Dru Smith 23 5 5 3
Kasparas Jakucionis 22 4 3 2
Simone Fontecchio 3 2 2 1
Keshad Johnson 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Jay Huff assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND
8%
8 Kel'el Ware MIA
6%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 23.5 4.8 4.0
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.1 5.9 3.4
3 Tyler Herro MIA 21.1 4.5 2.6
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.3 3.4 6.9
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.5 4.7 3.9
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.6 10.9 2.6
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.1 5.8 2.3
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.3 4.2 2.0
9 Andrew Wiggins MIA 14.5 5.2 2.8
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 13.8 10.2 1.2
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.0 2.5 6.7
12 Jay Huff IND 9.1 5.3 1.8
13 Pelle Larsson MIA 8.6 2.9 3.3
14 Quenton Jackson IND 8.3 2.9 2.2
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.0 3.9 3.0
16 Ethan Thompson IND 7.3 2.9 1.9
17 Jarace Walker IND 7.0 3.3 1.2
18 Dru Smith MIA 6.8 2.8 2.4
19 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.7 3.0 1.6
20 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.1 1.8 1.9
21 Johnny Furphy IND 5.2 2.4 0.8
22 Micah Potter IND 4.2 2.2 0.7
23 Kam Jones IND 3.9 1.2 0.8
24 Tony Bradley IND 3.6 2.0 0.6
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.0 2.4 0.4
26 Myron Gardner MIA 2.8 1.8 0.5
27 Taelon Peter IND 2.8 1.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.