NBA games

NY @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
128–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY33353030128
ATL27283436125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ATL
93% 7%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 36 15 1
Jalen Brunson S 38 34 3 5
OG Anunoby S 38 15 10 5
Mikal Bridges S 37 14 3 8
Kevin McCullar Jr. 23 13 8 2
Mitchell Robinson 18 6 9 1
Mohamed Diawara S 16 5 5 2
Jordan Clarkson 21 3 2 1
Tyler Kolek 19 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 31 14 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 30 25 0 1
Jalen Johnson S 37 20 9 12
Dyson Daniels S 39 13 8 9
Asa Newell 17 12 2 0
Vit Krejci 24 9 0 0
Trae Young S 31 9 0 10
Zaccharie Risacher S 19 4 4 0
Luke Kennard 5 2 0 0
Mouhamed Gueye 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 12-foot turnaround jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
15%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
11%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
7 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
8 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
50%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 31.2 3.9 6.8
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 26.4 11.2 10.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.5 11.6 2.9
4 Trae Young ATL 21.7 2.8 8.8
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.1 4.1 3.3
6 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.0 5.3 2.5
7 Mikal Bridges NY 17.6 4.9 4.3
8 OG Anunoby NY 15.5 5.1 2.2
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.5 7.4 4.0
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.8 6.1 4.7
11 Jordan Clarkson NY 11.7 2.9 1.7
12 Vit Krejci ATL 10.3 2.9 1.5
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.1 3.4 1.8
14 Tyler Kolek NY 9.3 3.9 4.6
15 Asa Newell ATL 6.4 2.5 1.1
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.3 10.1 1.5
17 Luke Kennard ATL 5.4 1.9 1.4
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.2 2.7 0.6
19 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 3.6 2.1 1.2
20 Keaton Wallace ATL 3.6 1.5 1.7
21 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.4 1.8 0.8
22 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.2 1.8 0.5
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.9 3.5 0.8
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.9 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.