NBA games

PHX @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
123–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX32332830123
NO33223029114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home NO
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 34 20 3 4
Dillon Brooks S 33 18 4 1
Collin Gillespie S 31 17 7 7
Jordan Goodwin 23 16 9 4
Royce O'Neale S 33 15 5 2
Jamaree Bouyea 12 12 3 0
Mark Williams 11 10 8 0
Oso Ighodaro S 29 8 10 4
Rasheer Fleming 15 5 0 1
Nick Richards 8 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 37 24 6 1
Zion Williamson 29 22 4 0
Derik Queen S 27 21 11 3
Jeremiah Fears S 34 18 8 2
Saddiq Bey S 33 17 5 2
Jose Alvarado 14 7 0 3
Yves Missi 21 4 8 1
Jordan Poole 14 1 1 3
Micah Peavy 8 0 0 0
Bryce McGowens S 24 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derik Queen NO
13%
2 Saddiq Bey NO
12%
3 Mark Williams PHX
12%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
5 Devin Booker PHX
11%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
7 Collin Gillespie PHX
8%
8 Jeremiah Fears NO
8%
9 Bryce McGowens NO
7%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
24%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 24.8 5.0 6.4
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.1 6.2 3.7
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.9 3.8 2.6
4 Trey Murphy III NO 22.4 5.1 4.3
5 Derik Queen NO 17.8 8.4 5.2
6 Jordan Poole NO 17.5 2.8 3.8
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 17.2 4.2 5.5
8 Saddiq Bey NO 16.0 6.0 2.0
9 Mark Williams PHX 14.0 8.0 1.7
10 Jeremiah Fears NO 14.0 4.2 3.9
11 Bryce McGowens NO 11.2 3.3 1.9
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.7 4.2 3.4
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.5 3.4 2.2
14 Jose Alvarado NO 8.5 2.9 3.5
15 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 7.5 2.8 2.1
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.1 6.0 1.9
17 Micah Peavy NO 5.4 2.1 0.9
18 Yves Missi NO 5.3 4.6 0.8
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.7 1.6 0.7
20 Rasheer Fleming PHX 4.6 2.0 0.7
21 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.5 3.8 0.8
22 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.9 2.2 0.5
23 Kevon Looney NO 2.6 2.8 0.8
24 Nick Richards PHX 2.4 2.4 0.4
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.4 1.6 0.6
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.3 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.