NBA games

DEN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
126–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN31313133126
ORL23253643127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home ORL
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 34 21 12
Jamal Murray S 37 24 5 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 33 20 4 2
Peyton Watson S 35 15 5 0
Spencer Jones S 34 14 6 3
Julian Strawther 17 13 0 1
Jonas Valanciunas 10 4 4 1
Bruce Brown 27 2 3 4
Jalen Pickett 10 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Black S 30 38 6 5
Desmond Bane S 38 24 1 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 38 18 7 4
Tristan da Silva 30 17 5 0
Paolo Banchero S 36 12 6 6
Jamal Cain 5 7 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 10 5 1 2
Jase Richardson 17 4 3 1
Noah Penda 10 2 4 2
Tyus Jones S 23 0 1 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointer (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
15%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
12%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
5 Anthony Black ORL
11%
6 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
7 Spencer Jones DEN
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
8%
10 Tyus Jones ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
29%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 32.3 11.4 11.3
2 Jamal Murray DEN 28.9 4.3 7.5
3 Desmond Bane ORL 20.2 4.8 5.1
4 Anthony Black ORL 18.9 6.0 5.2
5 Paolo Banchero ORL 18.6 7.5 5.1
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 14.8 3.2 1.5
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.0 7.3 2.1
8 Peyton Watson DEN 12.3 4.5 1.6
9 Bruce Brown DEN 10.9 5.0 2.2
10 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.4 4.3 1.2
11 Spencer Jones DEN 8.2 3.6 1.5
12 Jase Richardson ORL 7.4 2.0 1.5
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 6.8 3.4 1.4
14 Tyus Jones ORL 6.6 1.9 2.6
15 Jett Howard ORL 6.4 2.3 1.2
16 Noah Penda ORL 6.0 5.1 1.5
17 Jamal Cain ORL 4.4 1.9 0.8
18 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.4 2.0 1.8
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.9 3.2 0.6
20 Julian Strawther DEN 3.8 1.8 0.7
21 Orlando Robinson ORL 3.6 2.0 0.8
22 DaRon Holmes II DEN 3.2 1.3 0.7
23 Curtis Jones DEN 3.2 1.0 0.8
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.0 1.8 0.6
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.8 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.