NBA games

DAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
107–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL23213330107
SAC31282925113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SAC
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 34 23 6 5
P.J. Washington S 34 17 5 1
Klay Thompson 25 14 5 0
Daniel Gafford S 23 11 7 1
Naji Marshall 26 11 2 1
Max Christie S 30 9 7 5
Ryan Nembhard S 17 9 2 3
D'Angelo Russell 13 7 0 4
Jaden Hardy 7 5 3 2
Dwight Powell 19 1 11 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Ellis S 32 21 1 0
Russell Westbrook S 28 21 5 9
Maxime Raynaud S 27 19 6 2
Dennis Schroder 20 10 2 5
DeMar DeRozan S 28 9 4 6
Doug McDermott 19 9 3 1
Nique Clifford 20 8 9 1
Malik Monk 19 7 3 3
Precious Achiuwa S 25 5 9 2
Dylan Cardwell 21 4 8 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 2-foot running dunk (Ryan Nembhard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
14%
2 Maxime Raynaud SAC
12%
3 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
11%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Precious Achiuwa SAC
8%
9 Ryan Nembhard DAL
8%
10 Jaden Hardy DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
40%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 25.1 6.6 5.1
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.0 4.3 3.9
3 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.0 6.2 8.3
4 Dennis Schroder SAC 17.0 3.9 6.1
5 P.J. Washington DAL 17.0 8.5 2.0
6 Naji Marshall DAL 16.9 4.3 2.9
7 Maxime Raynaud SAC 16.4 9.2 2.0
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.2 6.1 1.7
9 Klay Thompson DAL 11.1 3.3 1.6
10 Malik Monk SAC 11.1 2.8 2.9
11 Ryan Nembhard DAL 10.8 2.9 6.3
12 Max Christie DAL 9.7 3.2 1.6
13 Precious Achiuwa SAC 8.1 5.7 1.2
14 D'Angelo Russell DAL 7.3 1.9 2.7
15 Nique Clifford SAC 7.3 3.1 1.3
16 Daniel Gafford DAL 5.6 5.8 1.0
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.6 1.4 0.9
18 Dylan Cardwell SAC 3.8 4.9 0.8
19 Keon Ellis SAC 3.7 1.5 0.9
20 Dario Saric SAC 3.6 1.4 0.4
21 Dwight Powell DAL 3.1 2.5 0.8
22 Caleb Martin DAL 3.1 2.3 1.1
23 Doug McDermott SAC 2.2 0.7 0.4
24 Moussa Cisse DAL 1.9 2.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.