NBA games

LAC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
119–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC25312934119
POR35271625103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home POR
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 39 34 2 6
Brook Lopez S 33 31 5 1
Kawhi Leonard S 41 28 8 6
John Collins S 19 8 3 1
Kris Dunn S 33 7 3 4
Kobe Sanders 16 5 4 1
Jordan Miller 14 3 3 1
Nicolas Batum 30 3 2 1
Cam Christie 1 0 0 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 39 29 9 9
Toumani Camara S 39 20 3 0
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 16 4 2
Caleb Love 25 14 0 2
Donovan Clingan S 25 10 8 4
Rayan Rupert 13 5 0 0
Robert Williams III 20 4 12 1
Kris Murray S 30 4 7 3
Sidy Cissoko 16 1 0 2
Duop Reath 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
2 James Harden LAC
11%
3 Jerami Grant POR
11%
4 John Collins LAC
11%
5 Deni Avdija POR
11%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
7%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
10 Kris Murray POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
22%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 27.7 7.1 4.4
2 James Harden LAC 26.0 4.3 8.1
3 Deni Avdija POR 25.6 6.6 8.5
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 24.0 4.2 4.0
5 Jerami Grant POR 22.0 4.8 3.5
6 John Collins LAC 15.3 5.0 2.1
7 Toumani Camara POR 13.2 4.6 3.3
8 Donovan Clingan POR 11.7 9.7 1.8
9 Kris Dunn LAC 11.1 3.4 3.6
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.1 3.1 2.7
11 Sidy Cissoko POR 8.7 2.7 1.7
12 Kris Murray POR 7.7 4.0 1.3
13 Robert Williams III POR 7.1 7.6 1.0
14 Caleb Love POR 6.8 1.8 1.6
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.8 2.6 1.7
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.4 2.9 1.3
17 Blake Wesley POR 6.3 2.5 2.9
18 Jordan Miller LAC 6.0 3.1 1.2
19 Brook Lopez LAC 5.5 2.6 1.1
20 Kobe Brown LAC 5.2 2.4 1.1
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.2 0.8
22 Cam Christie LAC 3.7 2.1 0.7
23 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.4 2.3 0.6
24 Yang Hansen POR 3.1 2.1 1.1
25 Duop Reath POR 3.0 1.3 0.7
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.3 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.