NBA games

DET @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
129–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET36323526129
UTAH33344420131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home UTAH
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 29 5 17
Tobias Harris S 27 16 7 4
Duncan Robinson S 26 14 4 1
Jalen Duren S 22 11 4 0
Ronald Holland II 19 11 6 3
Caris LeVert 20 11 1 4
Jaden Ivey 14 11 0 4
Ausar Thompson S 16 8 6 0
Javonte Green 20 8 2 1
Daniss Jenkins 9 6 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 35 31 7 8
Lauri Markkanen S 38 30 4 4
Brice Sensabaugh 33 20 2 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 32 16 11 5
Kevin Love 16 14 5 3
Isaiah Collier 29 9 1 9
Svi Mykhailiuk S 21 9 4 2
Kyle Filipowski 11 2 4 0
Walter Clayton Jr. 9 0 1 1
Ace Bailey S 11 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
11%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
4 Tobias Harris DET
9%
5 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
8%
8 Ace Bailey UTAH
8%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
10 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
30%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 26.6 4.5 6.7
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.2 6.6 10.1
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.7 8.1 2.4
4 Jalen Duren DET 17.9 11.2 2.2
5 Tobias Harris DET 14.9 4.7 2.8
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 13.3 7.2 2.1
7 Ausar Thompson DET 13.2 6.9 3.0
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 11.9 9.6 4.7
9 Ace Bailey UTAH 11.8 3.5 1.6
10 Duncan Robinson DET 11.4 3.1 2.4
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.9 5.9 1.4
12 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.8 2.6 1.8
13 Isaiah Collier UTAH 8.7 1.8 6.2
14 Kevin Love UTAH 8.1 5.3 1.3
15 Ronald Holland II DET 7.8 3.8 1.1
16 Caris LeVert DET 7.7 2.9 2.8
17 Jaden Ivey DET 7.6 2.6 1.9
18 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 7.6 1.9 2.9
19 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 7.2 2.4 1.3
20 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.4 2.4 0.9
21 Javonte Green DET 5.8 2.2 1.1
22 Daniss Jenkins DET 5.2 2.0 1.9
23 Kyle Anderson UTAH 4.6 1.9 2.5
24 Paul Reed DET 4.0 3.0 0.7
25 Chaz Lanier DET 3.4 1.2 0.7
26 Marcus Sasser DET 3.1 0.8 1.5
27 Cody Williams UTAH 3.0 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.